Jimmy Boyd in 
When it comes to handicapping the NBA, the postseason is whole different beast. There are several different factors that must be accounted when breaking down individual games or the odds to win the Finals.
One of my favorite strategies for betting the NBA postseason is the Zig Zag Theory. Which looks at how each team responds after a loss in their previous game.
For this article I’m going to focus on a 2-0 series lead. The key being the performance against the spread in Game 3 of a series.
The data below goes back to the 2002-03 season and is current with last year’s playoffs.
Look at How Teams Up 2-0 Perform Overall & By Round in NBA Playoffs
Overall
As you can see, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in a series are only covering the spread at a 44% (62-79-2) clip.
It makes since that the SU records are equally poor in this spot. More times than not, teams who won the first two games of a series, did so at home.
Two key factors play into this. First, the team down 0-2 is going to have the motivational edge in Game 3. Second, the oddsmakers are going shade the line in favor of the team up 2-0.
While there’s a slight edge in favor of the over, I see no value in the total.
| SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 65-78 (45.5%) | 62-79-2 (44.0%) | 74-67-2 (52.5%) |
By Round
The next thing I looked at was whether or not the idea of fading clubs up 2-0 in a series held true across all four rounds.
As you would expect the number of times a team takes a 2-0 lead drops off drastically after the first round. There have been 83 times a team in the first round went up 2-0. The next three rounds combined only produced 60 instances.
For the most part it held up as expected. While the teams up 2-0 in the NBA Finals have performed better against the spread, they are just 3-5 SU.
| Round | SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39-44 (47.0%) | 36-47 (43.4%) | 45-36-2 (55.6%) |
| 2 | 16-19 (45.7%) | 15-19-1 (44.1%) | 16-19 (45.7%) |
| 3 | 7-10 (41.2%) | 6-11 (35.3%) | 8-9 (47.1%) |
| 4 | 3-5 (37.5%) | 5-2-1 (71.4%) | 5-3 (62.5%) |
Handicapping NBA Teams When Leading 2-0 in the Postseason
By Seed
I also checked how each seed performed in each round. As I’m sure you are aware, there are eight seeds in each conference. In the tables below, I only provided the data for the seeds who have went up 2-0. If a seed isn’t listed they haven’t taken a 2-0 lead in a series.
Opening Round
| Seed | SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13-11 (54.2%) | 10-14 (41.7%) | 11-12-1 (47.8%) |
| 2 | 14-9 (60.9%) | 13-10 (56.5%) | 11-11-1 (50.0%) |
| 3 | 5-8 (38.5%) | 6-7 (46.2%) | 9-4 (69.2%) |
| 4 | 4-10 (28.6%) | 4-10 (28.6%) | 8-6 (57.1%) |
| 5 | 2-4 (33.3%) | 2-4 (33.3%) | 5-1 (83.3%) |
| 6 | 1-1 (50.0%) | 1-1 (50.0%) | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| 8 | 0-1 (0%) | 0-1 (0%) | 0-1 (0%) |
Conference Quarterfinals
| Seed | SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8-8 (50%) | 8-7-1 (53.3%) | 7-9 (43.8%) |
| 2 | 5-8 (38.5%) | 5-8 (38.5%) | 5-8 (38.5%) |
| 3 | 2-2 (50%) | 2-2 (50%) | 3-1 (75%) |
| 4 | 1-1 (50.0%) | 0-2 (0%) | 1-1 (50.0%) |
Conference Championship
| Seed | SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2-6 (25%) | 2-6 (25%) | 2-6 (25%) |
| 2 | 4-3 (57.1%) | 3-4 (42.9%) | 5-2 (71.4%) |
| 3 | 0-1 (0%) | 0-1 (0%) | 1-0 (100%) |
| 4 | 1-0 (100%) | 1-0 (100%) | 0-1 (100%) |
NBA Finals
| Seed | SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-3 (25%) | 2-1-1 (66.7%) | 3-1 (75%) |
| 2 | 1-1 (50.0%) | 1-1 (50.0%) | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| 3 | 1-0 (100%) | 1-0 (100%) | 0-1 (0%) |
| 4 | 0-1 (0%) | 1-0 (100%) | 1-0 (100%) |
Home/Away Splits
The last thing I looked at was whether it mattered if a team up 2-0 performed better at home or on the road.
It should come as no surprise, that there have been very few instances where a team has played at home up 2-0 in a series. In order for this to happen, they would have had to win both road games to start a series.
There have only been 14 times that a team has opened up a series 2-0 on the road. They were just 2-5 ATS in the first round. After that it flips, and they are 6-1 ATS. Note that the OVER is a rock solid 10-4 (71.4%) in this situation.
Opening Round
| Site | SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2-5 (28.6%) | 2-5 (28.6%) | 6-1 (85.7%) |
| Away | 37-39 (48.7%) | 34-42 (44.7%) | 39-35-2 (52.7%) |
Conference Quarterfinals
| Site | SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2-0 (100%) | 1-1 (50.0%) | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Away | 14-19 (42.4%) | 14-18-1 (43.8%) | 15-18 (45.5%) |
Conference Finals
| Site | SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4-1 (80%) | 3-2 (60%) | 3-2 (60%) |
| Away | 3-9 (25.0%) | 3-9 (25.0%) | 5-7 (41.7%) |
NBA Finals
| Site | SU | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Away | 3-5 (37.5%) | 5-2-1 (71.4%) | 5-3 (62.5%) |
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