Stephen Nover’s Free Sports Handicapping Picks

The timing is ripe for Nebraska to end its 10-game losing streak to Wisconsin.

The Badgers came tantalizing close to upsetting top-ranked Oregon at home last Saturday. The Badgers lost, 16-13, because of a phantom chop block penalty and the ineffectiveness of redshirt sophomore quarterback Brayden Locke, who has been the replacement for injured starter Tyler Van Dyke.

Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell fired Phil Longo, his offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, following that loss. A replacement has yet to be named.

Nebraska freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola has regressed after an impressive first five games. Raiola, though, is better than Locke, who has completed only 55.1 percent of his passes and has a 9-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

It's going to prove difficult for Wisconsin to get motivated in this tough road setting after suffering such a tough defeat to the Ducks.

Wisconsin hasn't played well against quality defenses. The Badgers are averaging a meager 12 points during their last three games having faced Oregon, Iowa and Penn State. The Badgers couldn't break 300 yards of offense against any of those teams.

The Cornhuskers rank in the top-28 in fewest points and yards allowed per game. They are holding foes to an average of 11.8 points and 291 yards at home.

The Badgers could be without two of their most important players, both of whom were hurt against Oregon. Those players are Will Pauling, who leads Wisconsin in receptions by a wide margin with 42, and safety Hunter Wohler, who leads the Badgers in tackles.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is enjoying another winning college football season. Stephen has three premium CFB Saturday plays in addition to this free selection, including his Big 12 Game of the Year.)

Arkansas State is a bad defensive team. UL-Monroe, however, is heavily ground-oriented and  plays at the second-slowest pace in the nation.

The Warhawks rank fourth-from-the-bottom in passing. If you discount a 38-point performance against a horrendous 1-9 Southern Mississippi team, Monroe is averaging 15.4 points in its last seven games.

Arkansas State has scored fewer than 20 points in five of its last eight games. Monroe ranks 23rd in pass defense.

BYU had been living dangerously. They were lucky to have snuck past Utah in a controversial, 22-21, win two weeks ago. The Cougars had their unbeaten bubble finally pricked by underdog Kansas in a home loss last week. 

That loss to the 4-6 Jayhawks confirmed what many believe, including myself, that the Cougars were overrated. 

Now BYU faces one of the most improved teams in the country, 21st-ranked Arizona State in Tempe, Ariz. 

Arizona State is tied for the third-best point spread record in the country at 8-2. Sun Devils head man Kenny Dillingham is a coach of the year candidate. 

It often happens that when an unbeaten team loses their first game midseason-to-late in the year, it loses the next game. It happened to Iowa State, Liberty, Navy and Pittsburgh, all of whom opened 5-0 or better. 

I see it happening to BYU here. 

BYU and Arizona State have played six common opponents. BYU went 3-3 ATS against those foes, while Arizona State covered all six. 

The Sun Devils have the superior run defense and a better rushing offense. Their passing attack is strong, too, with quarterback Sam Leavitt throwing to his favorite target, Jordyn Tyson.