Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday.

After a low-scoring opener in the Bronx, I expect a higher-scoring affair on Saturday with the wind blowing out to right-center and temperatures approaching 80 degrees. The forecast conditions at Yankee Stadium should help both teams' potent offenses get going. Former Yankee Nestor Cortes takes the mound for Milwaukee, but he's coming off a shaky Spring, and his transition to the Brewers could take some time. On the other hand, Max Fried takes the mound for New York, but even though he's a talented left-hander, he's up against a Brewers lineup that is capable of explosive performances.

Both teams have loaded lineups with the ability to go deep at any point, and with the weather expected to be favorable for hitters, I expect runs to come at a premium. Despite the strong starting pitchers, the windy conditions and warm weather should favor the offense, leading to plenty of opportunities for runs. This could be a day where the bats outshine the arms, making the 'over' a solid play.

Take the over. Projected score: Milwaukee 6, New York 5.

My selection is on the Mariners over the Athletics at 9:40 pm et on Saturday.

After splitting the first two games of this series, I expect the Mariners to take control on Saturday. The Athletics will send Osvaldo Bido to the mound, and while he showed flashes in limited duty last season, he's still largely unproven at this level. Mariners hitters have already had success against him, going 8-for-22 (.364) with a 1.008 OPS in limited exposure. Bido also had trouble keeping the ball in the park this Spring, surrendering five home runs to just 73 batters faced, which could spell trouble against a Mariners lineup looking to bounce back offensively.

Seattle will counter with Bryce Miller, who is coming off a strong 2024 campaign in which he posted a 3.58 FIP and an impressive 0.98 WHIP. He was sharp again this Spring, logging a 3.77 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 14 1/3 innings. Miller has dominated the current A's lineup in past matchups, holding them to a collective 5-for-32 (.156) with a .487 OPS. Additionally, the Mariners' bullpen is in great shape heading into this contest, with no reliever having been overworked in the early days of the season. Given the pitching edge and a more well-rounded lineup, Seattle is in a prime position to secure the win.

Take Seattle. Projected score: Mariners 6, Athletics 3.

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Arizona at 8 pm et on Saturday.

After back-to-back high-scoring contests to open this series, I expect a much tighter, lower-scoring affair on Saturday. The Cubs will turn to Shota Imanaga, who impressed as a rookie last season, posting a 3.72 FIP and 1.02 WHIP across 29 starts. He finished fourth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting and even cracked the top five in N.L. Cy Young Award voting. Imanaga has already made his season debut, tossing four scoreless, hitless innings against the Dodgers in Japan last week. He’ll have the advantage of being further stretched out for this start and facing a Diamondbacks lineup that has struggled in limited looks against him, going just 4-for-22 (.182) with a .581 OPS.

Arizona will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, who the team committed to in the offseason despite pedestrian numbers last year (3.61 FIP, 1.24 WHIP). Still just 26 years old, Pfaadt has the potential to take a step forward, and he draws a favorable matchup here against a Cubs lineup that has collectively hit just .170 (9-for-53) with a .464 OPS against him. Both bullpens are well-rested after no relievers had to work consecutive days in the first two games of the series. With two quality starting pitchers on the mound and fresh relief arms waiting in the wings, this game has all the makings of a lower-scoring contest.

Take the under. Projected score: Arizona 4, Chicago 2.

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Diego at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Braves have dropped the first two games of this series, but both contests were tightly contested. I expect them to bounce back in convincing fashion on Saturday behind a strong effort from Spencer Schwellenbach. The young right-hander put together a promising rookie campaign last season, posting a 3.29 FIP and 1.04 WHIP across 21 starts. He carried that momentum into the spring, logging a 3.00 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over 21 innings of work. While he has limited exposure to Padres hitters, they have struggled in a small sample, going just 4-for-23 (.174) with a .435 OPS against him. Atlanta’s bullpen is also in relatively good shape, with only Dylan Lee having worked the first two games of the series, and his workload (21 pitches) was light enough that he could be available again on Saturday.

San Diego will send Randy Vasquez to the mound, and while he showed flashes of potential last season, he’ll be facing a Braves lineup that has had success against him in the past. Current Atlanta hitters have gone 11-for-39 (.282) with five extra-base hits and a .795 OPS against Vasquez, suggesting they match up well against him. Additionally, the Padres' bullpen has been worked hard in the first two games of this series, with three key relievers having pitched in both contests, each throwing over 35 pitches. That could leave San Diego vulnerable late in the game if Vasquez isn’t able to pitch deep. Look for the Braves to capitalize on their edge both on the mound and at the plate as they snap their mini skid in dominant fashion.

Take Atlanta -1.5 runs. Projected score: Atlanta 6, San Diego 3.

My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Seattle at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Stars have opened their road trip with back-to-back high-scoring affairs, netting a total of nine goals in victories over Edmonton and Calgary. While their offense has been clicking, they'll face a much tougher challenge against a Kraken squad that has been strong defensively on home ice, allowing just 2.9 goals per game this season. Seattle is coming off an offensive outburst of its own, putting up six goals against a depleted Oilers squad on Thursday. However, that performance appears to be an outlier, as the Kraken have averaged just 3.1 goals per game at home this season and tend to rely on their defensive structure to stay competitive.

The first meeting between these two teams this season saw Dallas shut out Seattle by a 2-0 score, a game in which both defenses dictated the pace. With both teams playing relatively tight-checking hockey in recent weeks and Dallas looking to build on a strong road trip, I expect a lower-scoring contest. Goaltending should also play a factor, with both teams getting solid play between the pipes. Look for this matchup to play out much differently than the Stars' previous two games as scoring chances come at a premium.

Take the under. Projected score: Dallas 3, Seattle 2.

Saturday NBA Free play. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Philadelphia is desperate to get back on track after six consecutive losses, and this home matchup against Miami provides a prime opportunity. Despite their struggles, the 76ers will be eager to avenge their 108-101 loss to the Heat in this building back in early February. While Miami enters riding a three-game SU win streak and a five-game ATS surge, this feels like a potential letdown spot at the start of a three-game road trip. The Heat have been playing well, but they’ve also had the benefit of a favorable schedule recently.

Meanwhile, the Sixers’ recent slide has been reflected in the pointspread, giving them a bit of extra value in this matchup. Even in their losses, Philadelphia has been competitive, with four of their last five defeats coming by single digits. Miami is a team that prefers to grind out victories rather than blow teams away, making the points with Philadelphia even more appealing. Look for the 76ers to put forth one of their best efforts in weeks and keep this one close.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Miami 106, Philadelphia 105.

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and San Antonio at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring games, I anticipate a much different tempo in this matchup. The Celtics have been controlling the pace effectively, holding five straight and seven of their last eight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. That level of defensive focus has contributed to their current seven-game winning streak and four-game ATS run. Boston’s ability to dictate tempo and limit transition opportunities will be key against a Spurs team that prefers to push the pace but lacks consistency on the offensive end.

San Antonio is coming off a chaotic 124-116 loss to Cleveland, a game in which they managed 106 shot attempts but still struggled to score efficiently. The Spurs have been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in three consecutive contests, showing their offensive limitations despite the high volume of shots. The first meeting between these teams back in February resulted in just 219 total points, and with Boston’s defensive intensity ramping up, another relatively low-scoring affair seems likely.

Take the under. Projected score: Boston 113, San Antonio 104.

Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Duke minus the points over Alabama at 8:45 pm ET on Saturday.

Duke enters this Elite Eight matchup off a 100-93 victory over Arizona in the Sweet 16, a game in which the Blue Devils didn’t bring their best defensive effort but still managed to advance. Despite that performance, Duke remains one of the top defensive teams in the nation, ranking fifth in defensive rating per KenPom. While Alabama’s high-powered offense will present a challenge, Duke won’t back down from a high-scoring affair, especially considering it leads the nation in offensive rating this season.

A key factor in this matchup is Duke’s ability to dictate tempo. The Blue Devils rank 264th in adjusted tempo, while Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country. If Duke can slow things down and force the Tide into more half-court possessions, it could disrupt Alabama’s rhythm. Additionally, the Crimson Tide may have exerted significant energy in their 113-88 blowout win over BYU in the Sweet 16—a performance that was impressive but potentially unnecessary in terms of margin.

With Alabama riding a streak of seven straight games scoring 80+ points and coming off back-to-back ATS wins, this feels like the right spot to fade the Tide against a more disciplined and well-rounded Duke squad. Expect the Blue Devils to control the pace and pull away late.

Take Duke. Projected score: Duke 89, Alabama 76.