Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Baltimore over Washington at 6:45 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Orioles will be looking to bounce back after a blowout loss in the series opener on Tuesday, and they should have a good opportunity to do just that behind Tomoyuki Sugano, who is coming off his best start of the season. Sugano needed only 87 pitches to work through seven innings of two-run ball against a strong Guardians lineup in his last outing. Baltimore has now won each of his last three starts. While Sugano has had some issues keeping the ball in the park (1.7 HR/9 and a 5.60 FIP), the Nationals don’t pose a major threat in that department, having hit just six home runs over the last seven days while ranking 20th in MLB in weighted on-base average (wOBA) over that same stretch.

Offensively, Baltimore enters this matchup in much better form than Tuesday's shutout loss would suggest. The O’s lead the majors with 14 home runs over the last week and sit in the top half of the league in wOBA during that stretch. They also rank second in all of baseball in wOBA versus right-handed pitching, a key edge as they face Trevor Williams, who owns a 4.30 FIP and bloated 1.63 WHIP through four starts this season. While Williams had success last year, he hasn’t shown the same command or effectiveness this time around. Baltimore’s lineup, which includes a number of hitters seeing Williams for the first time, could take advantage. Although neither bullpen has been sharp, Washington’s relief unit has been one of the league’s worst, ranking 27th in xFIP (Baltimore checks in at 22nd). Look for the O’s to respond with a strong performance and even the series.

Take Baltimore. Projected score: Orioles 6, Nationals 4.

Wednesday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Boston at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this series finished with just 189 total points, and even with a much lower posted total heading into Game 2, I still believe the number will prove too high.

We’ve already seen what a grind this matchup can become, not just in Sunday’s playoff opener, but also in their most recent regular season meeting. That contest ended in a 96-76 Orlando win, and while the Celtics were resting key players on the second night of a back-to-back, it's still telling that the Magic attempted 91 field goals but made only 37. That speaks to the overall limitations of Orlando’s offense—especially against a Celtics defense that has been playing at an elite level.

Boston enters Game 2 having held four straight opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Magic have done a tremendous job controlling pace, limiting eight of their last 11 opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts—including just 82 from the Celtics in Game 1.

Boston has also struggled to consistently light it up offensively, knocking down 40 or fewer field goals in four of its last five contests. With the Magic likely needing to muck things up to have a chance of staying competitive, I anticipate another methodical, defensive-minded battle.

Take the under. Projected score: Celtics 101, Magic 92.

Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

While the Rockets came up short in Game 1, I expect a much more focused and efficient effort on Wednesday in a virtual must-win situation at home. Houston shot just 39.1% from the field in Sunday’s loss, connecting on only 34-of-87 attempts despite generating a reasonable number of looks. That kind of inefficiency is out of character for a Rockets team that had hit 45 or more field goals in five of their final six regular season games—even while resting key players. That stretch included a 45-for-93 shooting effort in a convincing 106-96 road win over this same Warriors squad on April 6th.

While Golden State did well to flip the script in Game 1, its offensive struggles continue to linger beneath the surface. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in six of their last nine games and 11 of their last 16 overall. Their defensive effort has kept them competitive, but we’ve seen lapses, like the April 13th loss to the Clippers when they allowed 48 made baskets, and of course, that earlier defeat against the Rockets when Houston's offense found its rhythm.

Golden State hasn’t been reliable from a betting perspective either, managing just a 9-12-1 ATS mark over their last 22 contests and stringing together an ATS winning streak (four games) only once since early March.

With their season potentially hanging in the balance should they fall into an 0-2 series hole, I like the Rockets to bring their best effort and snap a four-game slide both straight-up and against the number in this key spot at home.

Take Houston. Projected score: Rockets 109, Warriors 101.