Optimized NFL Playoffs Fantasy Player Projections (2024-25)

For the last few years, I've been enjoying an NFL playoffs fantasy league. Rules seem to differ from league to league, but ours only lets each manager select a maximum of two players from each team. Other than that, it's basically your standard PPR fantasy football scoring. The twist is the strategy around predicting how many games each team will play.

The playoffs bring unique challenges and opportunities for fantasy football players. Unlike the regular season, where the focus is on weekly consistency, playoffs fantasy requires balancing team success probabilities with player performance. Our projections look at how to optimize your fantasy lineup by predicting each player’s total expected points based on their team's probability of advancing through each playoff round.

Note: It should be obvious, but be careful with backup players (especially QBs) with a high point total. Their "average" isn't going to be very accurate if they didn't play in very many games.

Player	Position	Team	AVG FPP	Wild Card Round	Divisional Round	Conference Final	Super Bowl	Proj. Fantasy Points
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	25.6	25.60	21.32	14.03	6.40	67
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	22.6	22.60	18.50	12.66	5.79	60
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	19.8	19.80	16.49	10.85	4.95	52
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	22.2	22.20	14.99	8.59	4.93	51
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	21.3	21.30	14.38	8.24	4.73	49
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	21.3	0.00	21.30	14.21	9.47	45
James Cook	RB	BUF	16.7	16.70	13.67	9.35	4.28	44
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	22.5	22.50	14.38	5.00	1.73	44
Jared Goff	QB	DET	19.8	0.00	19.80	13.21	8.80	42
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	18.6	0.00	18.60	12.41	8.27	39
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	16.7	16.70	11.28	6.46	3.71	38
Patrick Mahomes II	QB	KC	18.4	0.00	18.40	11.89	7.67	38
Sam Darnold	QB	MIN	18.8	18.80	10.22	4.91	2.35	36
Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LAR	20.9	20.90	10.15	3.76	1.39	36
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	18.7	18.70	10.16	4.88	2.34	36
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	15.3	15.30	10.33	5.92	3.40	35
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	21.5	21.50	8.63	3.12	1.13	34
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	16.2	0.00	16.20	10.47	6.75	33
David Montgomery	RB	DET	15.8	0.00	15.80	10.54	7.02	33
Mike Evans	WR	TB	17.2	17.20	10.99	3.82	1.32	33
Chris Godwin	WR	TB	17.2	17.20	10.99	3.82	1.32	33
Tanner McKee	QB	PHI	14.4	14.40	9.72	5.57	3.20	33
Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	18.8	18.80	9.13	3.38	1.25	33
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	12.3	12.30	10.24	6.74	3.08	32
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	12.2	12.20	9.99	6.83	3.13	32
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	17.0	17.00	10.28	3.42	1.13	32
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	14.1	0.00	14.10	9.40	6.27	30
Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	17.0	17.00	8.25	3.06	1.13	29
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	11.1	11.10	9.24	6.08	2.78	29
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	17.2	17.20	6.12	3.51	2.02	29
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	15.1	15.10	9.13	3.04	1.01	28
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	14.4	14.40	9.20	3.20	1.11	28
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	17.6	17.60	7.49	2.13	0.61	28
J.K. Dobbins	RB	LAC	14.8	14.80	8.95	2.97	0.99	28
Aaron Jones Sr.	RB	MIN	14.2	14.20	7.72	3.71	1.78	27
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	14.2	14.20	7.72	3.71	1.78	27
Daniel Jones	QB	MIN	14.2	14.20	7.72	3.71	1.78	27
Jordan Love	QB	GB	16.3	16.30	5.80	3.33	1.92	27
Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	17.2	17.20	7.32	2.08	0.59	27
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	10.3	10.30	8.58	5.64	2.58	27
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	19.4	19.40	4.25	1.88	0.84	26
Cooper Kupp	WR	LAR	14.6	14.60	7.09	2.63	0.97	25
Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	15.8	15.80	6.35	2.29	0.83	25
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	12.2	0.00	12.20	7.88	5.08	25
Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	12.0	0.00	12.00	7.75	5.00	25
Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	15.3	15.30	6.14	2.22	0.81	24
Rachaad White	RB	TB	12.5	12.50	7.99	2.78	0.96	24
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	13.9	13.90	6.75	2.50	0.93	24
Stefon Diggs	WR	HOU	15.2	15.20	6.47	1.84	0.52	24
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	10.4	10.40	7.02	4.02	2.31	24
Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	8.8	8.80	7.20	4.93	2.26	23
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	10.9	0.00	10.90	7.27	4.84	23
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	11.0	0.00	11.00	7.11	4.58	23
Tyler Bass	K	BUF	8.6	8.60	7.04	4.82	2.21	23
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	8.6	8.60	7.04	4.82	2.21	23
Justice Hill	RB	BAL	8.5	8.50	7.08	4.66	2.13	22
Justin Tucker	K	BAL	8.4	8.40	7.00	4.60	2.10	22
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	11.6	11.60	7.02	2.33	0.77	22
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	13.7	13.70	5.83	1.66	0.47	22
Russell Wilson	QB	PIT	16.2	16.20	3.32	1.36	0.56	21
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	7.8	7.80	6.38	4.37	2.00	21
Buffalo Bills	DST	BUF	7.8	7.80	6.38	4.37	2.00	21
Austin Seibert	K	WAS	12.8	12.80	5.14	1.86	0.67	20
Isaiah Likely	TE	BAL	7.7	7.70	6.41	4.22	1.93	20
Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	10.4	10.40	6.65	2.31	0.80	20
Jake Bates	K	DET	9.5	0.00	9.50	6.34	4.22	20
Cameron Dicker	K	LAC	10.5	10.50	6.35	2.11	0.70	20
Will Reichard	K	MIN	10.1	10.10	5.49	2.64	1.26	19
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	11.6	11.60	4.13	2.37	1.36	19
Cade Otton	TE	TB	10.0	10.00	6.39	2.22	0.77	19
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	14.1	14.10	3.09	1.37	0.61	19
DeAndre Hopkins	WR	KC	9.2	0.00	9.20	5.94	3.83	19
Jake Elliott	K	PHI	8.3	8.30	5.61	3.21	1.84	19
Marquise Brown	WR	KC	9.1	0.00	9.10	5.88	3.79	19
Baltimore Ravens	DST	BAL	7.1	7.10	5.91	3.89	1.78	19
Chase McLaughlin	K	TB	9.6	9.60	6.13	2.13	0.74	19
Minnesota Vikings	DST	MIN	9.5	9.50	5.16	2.48	1.19	18
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	WAS	11.4	11.40	4.58	1.65	0.60	18
Philadelphia Eagles	DST	PHI	7.9	7.90	5.34	3.06	1.76	18
Ray Davis	RB	BUF	6.8	6.80	5.57	3.81	1.74	18
Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	11.0	11.00	4.42	1.60	0.58	18
Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	10.2	10.20	3.63	2.08	1.20	17
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	8.7	8.70	4.73	2.27	1.09	17
Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	8.1	0.00	8.10	5.23	3.38	17
Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	10.4	10.40	4.18	1.51	0.55	17
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	9.6	9.60	3.42	1.96	1.13	16
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	HOU	10.1	10.10	4.30	1.22	0.35	16
Harrison Butker	K	KC	7.7	0.00	7.70	4.97	3.21	16
Najee Harris	RB	PIT	12.0	12.00	2.46	1.01	0.41	16
Justin Fields	QB	PIT	12.0	12.00	2.46	1.01	0.41	16
Tank Dell	WR	HOU	10.0	10.00	4.26	1.21	0.34	16
George Pickens	WR	PIT	11.7	11.70	2.40	0.98	0.40	15
Tyler Higbee	TE	LAR	8.9	8.90	4.32	1.60	0.59	15
Mack Hollins	WR	BUF	5.8	5.80	4.75	3.25	1.49	15
Detroit Lions	DST	DET	7.2	0.00	7.20	4.80	3.20	15
Brandon McManus	K	GB	9.0	9.00	3.20	1.84	1.06	15
Chris Boswell	K	PIT	11.2	11.20	2.30	0.94	0.39	15
Green Bay Packers	DST	GB	8.7	8.70	3.10	1.77	1.02	15
Denver Broncos	DST	DEN	10.5	10.50	2.30	1.02	0.46	14
Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	5.4	5.40	4.42	3.02	1.38	14
Los Angeles Chargers	DST	LAC	7.5	7.50	4.54	1.51	0.50	14
Noah Gray	TE	KC	6.7	0.00	6.70	4.33	2.79	14
Joshua Karty	K	LAR	7.9	7.90	3.83	1.42	0.53	14
Will Dissly	TE	LAC	7.3	7.30	4.41	1.47	0.49	14
Joshua Palmer	WR	LAC	7.2	7.20	4.35	1.45	0.48	13
Spencer Shrader	K	KC	6.5	0.00	6.50	4.20	2.71	13
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	9.9	9.90	2.03	0.83	0.34	13
Houston Texans	DST	HOU	8.2	8.20	3.49	0.99	0.28	13
Kansas City Chiefs	DST	KC	6.2	0.00	6.20	4.01	2.58	13
Wil Lutz	K	DEN	9.4	9.40	2.06	0.91	0.41	13
Demarcus Robinson	WR	LAR	7.3	7.30	3.54	1.31	0.49	13
Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	9.3	9.30	2.04	0.90	0.40	13
Noah Brown	WR	WAS	7.8	7.80	3.13	1.13	0.41	12
Malik Willis	QB	GB	7.4	7.40	2.63	1.51	0.87	12
Tim Patrick	WR	DET	5.8	0.00	5.80	3.87	2.58	12
Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	4.6	4.60	3.77	2.58	1.18	12
Tyrell Shavers	WR	BUF	4.6	4.60	3.77	2.58	1.18	12
Los Angeles Rams	DST	LAR	6.9	6.90	3.35	1.24	0.46	12
Kenny Pickett	QB	PHI	5.2	5.20	3.51	2.01	1.16	12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	DST	TB	6.1	6.10	3.90	1.35	0.47	12
Jalen Nailor	WR	MIN	6.1	6.10	3.31	1.59	0.76	12
Christian Watson	WR	GB	7.0	7.00	2.49	1.43	0.82	12
Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	7.4	7.40	3.15	0.90	0.26	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	DST	PIT	8.6	8.60	1.76	0.72	0.30	11
Cam Akers	RB	MIN	5.8	5.80	3.15	1.51	0.73	11
Devaughn Vele	WR	DEN	8.2	8.20	1.79	0.80	0.36	11
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	7.0	7.00	2.98	0.85	0.24	11
Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	5.7	5.70	3.64	1.27	0.44	11
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	8.3	8.30	1.70	0.70	0.29	11
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	GB	6.5	6.50	2.31	1.33	0.76	11
Gus Edwards	RB	LAC	5.8	5.80	3.51	1.17	0.39	11
Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	WAS	6.6	6.60	2.65	0.96	0.35	11
Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	7.6	7.60	1.66	0.74	0.33	10
Zane Gonzalez	K	WAS	6.3	6.30	2.53	0.91	0.33	10
Tutu Atwell	WR	LAR	5.8	5.80	2.82	1.04	0.39	10
Kalif Raymond	WR	DET	4.7	0.00	4.70	3.13	2.09	10
Samaje Perine	RB	KC	4.8	0.00	4.80	3.10	2.00	10
Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	3.7	3.70	3.03	2.07	0.95	10
Emanuel Wilson	RB	GB	5.6	5.60	1.99	1.14	0.66	9
Calvin Austin III	WR	PIT	7.0	7.00	1.43	0.59	0.24	9
Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	3.5	3.50	2.91	1.92	0.88	9
Josh Oliver	TE	MIN	4.4	4.40	2.39	1.15	0.55	8
Washington Commanders	DST	WAS	5.3	5.30	2.13	0.77	0.28	8
Jaleel McLaughlin	RB	DEN	6.1	6.10	1.33	0.59	0.27	8
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PHI	3.6	3.60	2.43	1.39	0.80	8
Grant Calcaterra	TE	PHI	3.5	3.50	2.36	1.35	0.78	8
JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	3.8	0.00	3.80	2.45	1.58	8
Sean Tucker	RB	TB	4.0	4.00	2.56	0.89	0.31	8
Justin Watson	WR	KC	3.7	0.00	3.70	2.39	1.54	8
Tyler Johnson	WR	LAR	4.1	4.10	1.99	0.74	0.27	7
Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	4.4	4.40	1.77	0.64	0.23	7
Parris Campbell	WR	PHI	3.0	3.00	2.03	1.16	0.67	7
John Metchie III	WR	HOU	4.3	4.30	1.83	0.52	0.15	7
Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	4.2	4.20	1.69	0.61	0.22	7
Colby Parkinson	TE	LAR	3.8	3.80	1.84	0.68	0.25	7
Ryan Miller	WR	TB	3.3	3.30	2.11	0.73	0.25	6
Dameon Pierce	RB	HOU	4.0	4.00	1.70	0.48	0.14	6
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	WAS	3.9	3.90	1.57	0.57	0.21	6
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	3.3	3.30	2.00	0.66	0.22	6
Jeremy McNichols	RB	WAS	3.8	3.80	1.53	0.55	0.20	6
Jordan Whittington	WR	LAR	3.5	3.50	1.70	0.63	0.23	6
Charlie Kolar	TE	BAL	2.2	2.20	1.83	1.21	0.55	6
Mecole Hardman Jr.	WR	KC	2.8	0.00	2.80	1.81	1.17	6
Jahan Dotson	WR	PHI	2.5	2.50	1.69	0.97	0.56	6
Ainias Smith	WR	PHI	2.5	2.50	1.69	0.97	0.56	6
Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	4.2	4.20	0.92	0.41	0.18	6
Tylan Wallace	WR	BAL	2.1	2.10	1.75	1.15	0.53	6
Devin Culp	TE	TB	2.8	2.80	1.79	0.62	0.22	5
Chris Brooks	RB	GB	3.2	3.20	1.14	0.65	0.38	5
Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	3.3	3.30	1.40	0.40	0.11	5
Johnny Mundt	TE	MIN	2.7	2.70	1.47	0.70	0.34	5
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	3.8	3.80	0.83	0.37	0.17	5
Derius Davis	WR	LAC	2.7	2.70	1.63	0.54	0.18	5
Audric Estime	RB	DEN	3.7	3.70	0.81	0.36	0.16	5
Van Jefferson	WR	PIT	3.7	3.70	0.76	0.31	0.13	5
Britain Covey	WR	PHI	2.1	2.10	1.42	0.81	0.47	5
MarShawn Lloyd	RB	GB	2.8	2.80	1.00	0.57	0.33	5
Ronnie Rivers	RB	LAR	2.6	2.60	1.26	0.47	0.17	5
Mitchell Trubisky	QB	BUF	1.7	1.70	1.39	0.95	0.44	4
Keaton Mitchell	RB	BAL	1.7	1.70	1.42	0.93	0.43	4
Trey Palmer	WR	TB	2.3	2.30	1.47	0.51	0.18	4
Brock Wright	TE	DET	2.1	0.00	2.10	1.40	0.93	4
Jermar Jefferson	RB	DET	2.1	0.00	2.10	1.40	0.93	4
Malik Heath	WR	GB	2.6	2.60	0.93	0.53	0.31	4
Stone Smartt	TE	LAC	2.3	2.30	1.39	0.46	0.15	4
Payne Durham	TE	TB	2.2	2.20	1.41	0.49	0.17	4
Mike Williams	WR	PIT	3.2	3.20	0.66	0.27	0.11	4
Tyler Badie	RB	DEN	3.1	3.10	0.68	0.30	0.13	4
Hassan Haskins	RB	LAC	2.2	2.20	1.33	0.44	0.15	4
Robert Woods	WR	HOU	2.6	2.60	1.11	0.31	0.09	4
Rakim Jarrett	WR	TB	2.1	2.10	1.34	0.47	0.16	4
Simi Fehoko	WR	LAC	2.1	2.10	1.27	0.42	0.14	4
Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	2.9	2.90	0.59	0.24	0.10	4
Blake Corum	RB	LAR	2.2	2.20	1.07	0.40	0.15	4
Davis Mills	QB	HOU	2.4	2.40	1.02	0.29	0.08	4
K.J. Osborn	WR	WAS	2.3	2.30	0.92	0.33	0.12	4
Ty Chandler	RB	MIN	1.9	1.90	1.03	0.50	0.24	4
Cade Stover	TE	HOU	2.3	2.30	0.98	0.28	0.08	4
DJ Chark Jr.	WR	LAC	1.9	1.90	1.15	0.38	0.13	4
Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	2.6	2.60	0.57	0.25	0.11	4
Nate Adkins	TE	DEN	2.6	2.60	0.57	0.25	0.11	4
Lucas Krull	TE	DEN	2.6	2.60	0.57	0.25	0.11	4
Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	2.6	2.60	0.53	0.22	0.09	3
Devontez Walker	WR	BAL	1.3	1.30	1.08	0.71	0.33	3
Anthony Miller	WR	BAL	1.3	1.30	1.08	0.71	0.33	3
Jalen Reagor	WR	LAC	1.8	1.80	1.09	0.36	0.12	3
Carson Wentz	QB	KC	1.6	0.00	1.60	1.03	0.67	3
Cody Schrader	RB	LAR	1.9	1.90	0.92	0.34	0.13	3
Luke McCaffrey	WR	WAS	2.0	2.00	0.80	0.29	0.11	3
Hayden Hurst	TE	LAC	1.7	1.70	1.03	0.34	0.11	3
Craig Reynolds	RB	DET	1.5	0.00	1.50	1.00	0.67	3
Carson Steele	RB	KC	1.5	0.00	1.50	0.97	0.63	3
Tyquan Thornton	WR	KC	1.5	0.00	1.50	0.97	0.63	3
Mike White	QB	BUF	1.1	1.10	0.90	0.62	0.28	3
Peyton Hendershot	TE	KC	1.4	0.00	1.40	0.90	0.58	3
Nikko Remigio	WR	KC	1.4	0.00	1.40	0.90	0.58	3
Will Shipley	RB	PHI	1.2	1.20	0.81	0.46	0.27	3
Luke Musgrave	TE	GB	1.6	1.60	0.57	0.33	0.19	3
Patrick Ricard	RB	BAL	1.0	1.00	0.83	0.55	0.25	3
J.J. Taylor	RB	HOU	1.6	1.60	0.68	0.19	0.06	3
Trent Sherfield Sr.	WR	MIN	1.3	1.30	0.71	0.34	0.16	3
Xavier Hutchinson	WR	HOU	1.5	1.50	0.64	0.18	0.05	2
Quintin Morris	TE	BUF	0.9	0.90	0.74	0.50	0.23	2
Michael Burton	RB	DEN	1.7	1.70	0.37	0.16	0.07	2
E.J. Jenkins	TE	PHI	1.0	1.00	0.68	0.39	0.22	2
Tucker Fisk	TE	LAC	1.2	1.20	0.73	0.24	0.08	2
Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	1.4	1.40	0.60	0.17	0.05	2
Bo Melton	WR	GB	1.3	1.30	0.46	0.27	0.15	2
Johnny Wilson	WR	PHI	0.9	0.90	0.61	0.35	0.20	2
Hendon Hooker	QB	DET	0.9	0.00	0.90	0.60	0.40	2
MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	1.3	1.30	0.27	0.11	0.04	2
Laviska Shenault Jr.	WR	LAC	0.9	0.90	0.54	0.18	0.06	2
Tyrion Davis-Price	RB	PHI	0.7	0.70	0.47	0.27	0.16	2
Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	1.2	1.20	0.25	0.10	0.04	2
Rasheen Ali	RB	BAL	0.6	0.60	0.50	0.33	0.15	2
Brandon Powell	WR	MIN	0.8	0.80	0.43	0.21	0.10	2
C.J. Ham	RB	MIN	0.8	0.80	0.43	0.21	0.10	2
Taylor Heinicke	QB	LAC	0.8	0.80	0.48	0.16	0.05	1
Blake Watson	RB	DEN	1.1	1.10	0.24	0.11	0.05	1
Sione Vaki	RB	DET	0.7	0.00	0.70	0.47	0.31	1
Hunter Long	TE	LAR	0.8	0.80	0.39	0.14	0.05	1
Zach Davidson	TE	BUF	0.5	0.50	0.41	0.28	0.13	1
John Bates	TE	WAS	0.8	0.80	0.32	0.12	0.04	1
Ben Sinnott	TE	WAS	0.8	0.80	0.32	0.12	0.04	1
Davis Allen	TE	LAR	0.7	0.70	0.34	0.13	0.05	1
Connor Heyward	TE	PIT	0.9	0.90	0.18	0.08	0.03	1
Scotty Miller	WR	PIT	0.9	0.90	0.18	0.08	0.03	1
Kyle Allen	QB	PIT	0.8	0.80	0.16	0.07	0.03	1
Allen Robinson II	WR	DET	0.5	0.00	0.50	0.33	0.22	1
Jody Fortson Jr.	TE	KC	0.5	0.00	0.50	0.32	0.21	1
Chris Oladokun	QB	KC	0.5	0.00	0.50	0.32	0.21	1
Ben Sims	TE	GB	0.5	0.50	0.18	0.10	0.06	1
Jonathan Ward	RB	PIT	0.6	0.60	0.12	0.05	0.02	1
Brandon Johnson	WR	PIT	0.6	0.60	0.12	0.05	0.02	1
Aaron Shampklin	RB	PIT	0.6	0.60	0.12	0.05	0.02	1
Xavier Smith	WR	LAR	0.4	0.40	0.19	0.07	0.03	1
Brycen Tremayne	WR	WAS	0.4	0.40	0.16	0.06	0.02	1
Shane Zylstra	TE	DET	0.3	0.00	0.30	0.20	0.13	1
Nick Mullens	QB	MIN	0.3	0.30	0.16	0.08	0.04	1
Eric Tomlinson	TE	LAC	0.3	0.30	0.18	0.06	0.02	1
Jared Wiley	TE	KC	0.2	0.00	0.20	0.13	0.08	0
Kameron Johnson	WR	TB	0.2	0.20	0.13	0.04	0.02	0
Jarrett Stidham	QB	DEN	0.2	0.20	0.04	0.02	0.01	0
Reggie Gilliam	RB	BUF	0.1	0.10	0.08	0.06	0.03	0
Josh Johnson	QB	BAL	0.1	0.10	0.08	0.05	0.03	0
John FitzPatrick	TE	GB	0.1	0.10	0.04	0.02	0.01	0
British Brooks	RB	HOU	0.1	0.10	0.04	0.01	0.00	0
Kyle Trask	QB	TB	-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0
Steven Sims Jr.	WR	BAL	-0.2	-0.20	-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	-1

Our Methodology: Probability-Weighted Projections

To create accurate player projections, we analyzed the odds for each team to advance to each round of the playoffs. We could adjust player projections by assigning probabilities to each team’s path. Players on teams likely to make a deep playoff run have higher overall projections, while those on teams with lower probabilities of advancing beyond the Wild Card round see their values decrease.

Key Factors Considered:

Team Probabilities: The likelihood of a team advancing to each round based on current betting odds.
Player Performance: Historical per-game fantasy points for each player.
Bye Weeks: Teams with a first-round bye (Kansas City and Detroit) potentially have fewer games but also a higher probability of advancing past the Divisional Round.
Matchup Adjustments: Factoring in potential matchups, which could influence player performance in each round.

The Impact of Bye Weeks

While teams with a first-round bye are more likely to win their first playoff game, they also have one fewer game to accumulate fantasy points. This makes bye-week players both high-risk and high-reward. For example, Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit) are top-tier options, but their reduced total game count needs to be factored into your strategy.

Strategy for Building Your Playoffs Fantasy Team

Balance High-Probability and Long-Shot Players: While top-tier players from teams like Kansas City and Philadelphia are must-haves, adding players from underdog teams can provide a high upside if those teams make unexpected runs.
Stacking Players from the Same Team: In playoffs fantasy, stacking (selecting multiple players from the same team) can be a winning strategy. If your chosen team makes it to the Super Bowl, your lineup will crush. Again, this is a high-risk, high-reward strategy and may not be an option based on your league’s rules.
Diversify Your Roster: Avoid putting all your eggs in one basket. Select players from different teams to hedge against early eliminations. This may already be built into your rules if you can’t select more than a certain number of players from each team.
Consider Matchups: Look ahead at potential playoff matchups. Favor players whose teams have favorable paths to the Super Bowl or face a team that struggles against their particular skill set.

Playoffs fantasy football is a way to extend your fantasy football season that combines skill, strategy, and a bit of luck. By leveraging our probability-weighted projections and understanding the impact of bye weeks and potential matchups, you can build a lineup primed for success. Whether targeting top-tier stars or hunting for value among underdogs, the key is to stay flexible.

Good luck, and may your playoff fantasy team go the distance!

NFL Playoffs Fantasy Player Projections: Optimizing Lineups for Your League

Our Methodology: Probability-Weighted Projections

The Impact of Bye Weeks

Strategy for Building Your Playoffs Fantasy Team