Jack Jones of BetFirm Daily Free Sports Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Cincinnati Reds -116

The Cincinnati Reds are heating up at the plate scoring 5.8 runs per game in their last eight games.  They should provide Hunter Greene with plenty of run support today against Baltimore starter Brandon Young, who will be making his MLB debut in this one.

Greene is already among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young.  He is 2-1 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing just 3 earned runs and 16 base runners with 31 K's in 27 2/3 innings.

It is no fluke for Greene, who went 9-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 26 starts last season with 169 K's in 150 1/3 innings.  He is quickly becoming one of the best starters in baseball, and the Reds are favored for good reason today.  Bet the Reds Saturday.

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15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Lakers OVER 216

In their lone game with Luka Doncic facing the Timberwolves this season, the Lakers won 111-102 at home.  But that game should have seen a lot more than 213 combined points when you look at the box score.

The Timberwolves shot just 42% as a team and 12-of-41 (29%) from 3-point range.  The Lakers shot just 41% as a team including 11-of-41 (27%) from 3-point range.  So we only need marginal better shooting to easily eclipse this 216-point total in the rematch in Game 1 of this series.

The Lakers and their opponents have combined for 224 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games in which they were trying to win.  They really profile as an OVER team having to play more small ball with only Jaxon Hayes as their lone decent big man.  The Timberwolves and their opponents have combined for at least 221 points in 12 of their last 15 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles -4

JJ Redick has done a tremendous job putting all the pieces together since the Luka Doncic trade.  The Lakers climbed their way up to the No. 3 seed in the West by going 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their final 10 games in which they were trying to win, which included a 126-99 win at OKC and upset road wins at Memphis and Indiana.

The Minnesota Timberwolves proved last season they didn't have an answer for Luka Doncic when they lost to the Mavericks in the playoffs.  Now Doncic has even better sidekicks in LeBron James and Austin Reeves.  One of the more underrated aspects of the Lakers is their perimeter defenders to match up with guys like Anthony Edwards.  I think Edwards just has to do too much for this team without a true sidekick to take off some of the burden.

In their lone meeting this season in which Doncic played, the Lakers beat the Timberwolves 111-102 as 6-point home favorites.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series dating back further.  The home team went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings this season, and the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on San Francisco Giants -124

The San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 after getting shut out in Game 1 by the Los Angeles Angels yesterday.  The Giants have one of the most underrated lineups in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season which is a big reason for their 13-7 start.

Kyle Hendricks is one of the worst starters in baseball and I'm shocked the Angels have him as part of their rotation this season.  Hendricks went 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 24 starts for the Cubs last season.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 7-3 loss to the Astros in his last start this season.

The Angels are 1-4 in their last five games overall and scoring just 1.8 runs per game during this stretch.  Landen Roupp should hold them in check.  Roupp has 20 K's in 15 innings this season, and that electric stuff is what earned him a spot in the rotation this season.  Bet the Giants Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Giants/Angels OVER 8.5

Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.  The San Francisco Giants are capable of covering this total on their own.  They have one of the most underrated lineups in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game while going 14-6 OVER in their 20 games.

Kyle Hendricks is one of the worst starters in baseball and I'm shocked the Angels have him as part of their rotation this season.  Hendricks went 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 24 starts for the Cubs last season.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 7-3 loss to the Astros in his last start this season.

The Angels are scoring 4.3 runs per game and should do enough today to contribute the necessary runs we need to cash this OVER.  Landen Roupe has allowed 8 earned runs and 24 base runners in 15 innings in his three starts for the Giants this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Red Sox OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the White Sox and Red Sox today.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

The wind aided runs yesterday in a 10-3 win in Game 1 for the Red Sox that saw 13 combined runs.  The only reason this total is so low tonight is because Garret Crochet is pitching for Boston.

But this is going to benefit hitters considering this is a rematch from April 13th when Crochet faced Sean Smith in Chicago where the wind was blowing in.  Getting to see these starters for a second time in a week will benefit hitters, and runs should be much more plentiful in the rematch with hot temps and winds blowing out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE DAY on Reds/Orioles OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Reds and Orioles this afternoon.  There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center with temps in the 80's at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

The Reds are heating up at the plate scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game in their last eight games.  The Orioles are scoring 4.6 runs per game on the season with one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

Hunter Greene has been dominant, but he has also benefited from facing a very soft schedule getting to face the Giants (twice), Pirates and Rangers.  The Orioles will get to him enough today.  Brandon Young will be making his MLB debut for the Orioles, and the Reds are capable of covering this total on their own after scoring 8 runs yesterday in Game 1.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Royals/Tigers OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Royals and Tigers this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 60's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Detroit this afternoon.

The Tigers have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.  They should get to Seth Lugo, who allowed 4 earned runs and 4 homers in 6 2/3 innings in his last start.  Lugo allowed 4 earned runs, one homer and 10 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against Detroit.

The Royals should get their bats going against Casey Mize, who 11-20 with a 4.26 ERA in his career with only 241 K's in 308 1/3 innings.  Mize has allowed 7 earned runs and 19 base runners in 6 innings in his last two starts against the Royals.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Pirates OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Guardians and Pirates today.  Temps will be approaching 80 with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in Pittsburgh this afternoon.

It was the same forecast yesterday when the Guardians beat the Pirates 10-7 for 17 combined runs in Game 1.  This total is only this low because Paul Skenes is pitching, but the wind was blowing out in his last home start and it saw 13 combined runs against the Nationals.

Skenes hasn't been perfect, allowing 6 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts coming in.  The Pirates should crush Ben Lively, who has allowed 11 earend runs and 3 homers in 20 1/3 innings in four starts this season.  Lively allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-8 victory over the Pirates in his last start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Cardinals/Mets OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Mets tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center with gusts of over 30 MPH.  The ball should be flying out today.

The Cardinals have an underrated lineup scoring 5.0 runs per game this season.  The Mets have one of the best lineups in baseball and it's only a matter of time before they bust out.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game in their last six games.

Matthew Liberatore has allowed 13 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  Liberatore allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of an 8-7 win over the Mets in his last start against them.

Kodai Senga takes a big step up in class here after getting to face the Marlins (twice) and A's in his first two starts this season, which is a big reason he has been so successful.  Senga is also on a pitch count coming back from injury not throwing more than 79 pitches in any of his three starts thus far.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* DBacks/Cubs NL No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

These are two of the most potent lineups in baseball.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 5.8 runs per game while the Cubs are scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.  Arizona has scored at least 5 runs in six consecutive games coming in.  Chicago has scored at least 7 runs in five of its last six home games.

These teams combined for 24 runs in Game 1.  While the starting pitching matchup and forecast aren't as conducive for runs in the rematch, this total of 7.5 is too low.  Zac Gallen has not been sharp, allowing 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 21 1/3 innings.

Gallen allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings of a 10-6 loss to the Cubs in his first start this season.  Ben Brown has allowed 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 24 innings in his last five starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Marlins/Phillies OVER 10

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket between the Marlins and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center inside hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park today.

The Phillies have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are heating up at the plate scoring at least 4 runs in each of their last five games coming in, going 5-0 OVER in those five games which were all at home.  The Marlins are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all seven games, and 10 runs or more in five of them.

Cal Quantrill is a gas can.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 25 base runners in 14 innings in three starts this season.  Taijuan Walker is an equal gas can.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 10-4 home loss to the Giants in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.