Look at How High-Seeded Mid-Majors Perform in the NCAA Tournament

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• First Round
• Second Round
• Sweet 16
• Elite Eight
• Final Four
• Championship

Last year’s NCAA Tournament field featured two mid-major team that received a high seed (1-4). That was Gonzaga out of the West Coast Conference (WCC) and Wichita State out of the American Athletic both were seeded as a No. 4.

It was the seventh time since 2005 that the Bulldogs were seeded as a 1-4 seed. Gonzaga would advance to the Sweet 16, but would go on to lose by 15 to No. 9 seed Florida State. In 2017 the Bulldogs were the No. 1 seed and nearly won it all, reaching the championship game, where they fell in a closely contested game against North Carolina. Gonzaga will look to win it all this time around, as they are the No. 1 seed out of the West region.

The Shockers run didn’t last long, as they were upset in the first round by No. 13 seed Marshall.

Let’s take a look at how have these kinds of teams fared in the past?  Do they make good sleeper teams?  Are they worth a look with the NCAA tournament odds as teams that show some value?

I went back over every tournament since 1985. The focus is on 1-4 seeds from non-power conferences. Some teams that used to be considered mid-majors have since joined power conferences. We use the conference the teams was in for the season listed. Here are the results.

Look at How High-Seeded Mid-Majors Perform in March Madness

Round of 64

Record: 74-5 (93.67%)

Mid-major teams seeded 1-4 are excellent when it comes to the first round of the tournament. These are teams that had a special season to gain the recognition of the selection committee.

They also play low-seeded teams that just made the tournament or received an automatic bid.

Round of 32

Record: 43-31 (58.11%)

Once we get to the second official round of the tournament, things start to come apart. These teams still have a winning record, but it pales in comparison to the previous round.

For many of these teams getting past the first round might be a relief. Nobody wants to be that mid-major team that loses as a top seed in the first round. Once that pressure is off about 42% of those teams falter.

Sweet 16

Record: 23-20 (53.49%)

I expected to see a bigger drop-off than this in the Sweet 16. Mid-major teams who make it this far into the tournament must be the real-deal. They play much better opponents at this point.

Elite Eight

Record: 12-11 (52.17%)

Again, I was a little bit surprised at how well mid-major teams performed at this level. Opponents here are usually 1 and 2 seeds. It is no small feat for them to win as much as they lose.

Final Four

Record: 5-7 (41.67%)

The buck stops here. Only 5 out of the 12 schools that have gone to the Final Four have made it to the championship game.

The only teams that have won in this situation are: Gonzaga, Memphis, Utah, UNLV and Louisville. These aren’t teams from power conferences, but they aren’t exactly pushovers either.

Championship Game

Record: 2-3 (40%)

Louisville (1986) and UNLV (1990) are the only mid-major teams to win a National Championship.

Conclusion

Mid-major teams perform well in the first round of the tournament. After the first round, it is a coin flip until the Final Four. Once these teams reach this level they tend to collapse.

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