Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Los Angeles Lakers (508) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (49-33) has won three games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 116-105 victory against Utah as a 23-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (50-32) had won two games in a row before their 109-81 loss at Portland as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Led by rim protector Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to fifth in that category when playing on the road. They also play at the sixth-slowest pace in the league by averaging only 97.95 possessions per game. With the week off while the Play-In Tournament took place, they will begin this series rested and ready. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also played 5 of their 7 games this month Under the Total. The Timberwolves lost in the Western Conference Finals to Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks last postseason — and head coach Chris Finch has had almost a year to reconsider how to defend against Doncic if given the opportunity again. Doncic torched the T-Wolves by scoring 32.4 Points-Per-Game while nailing 43.4% of the 10.6 shots from behind the arc he averaged in that series. But Minnesota should be in a better position to defend Doncic this year since the Lakers lack the size that Dallas had in that series. The Timberwolves should defend Doncic coming off the pick-and-roll better this time — and Gobert should have more free reign to protect the rim. Since joining the Lakers, Doncic is not attacking the rim as much as he did with the Mavericks — and his shooting percentage has dropped from 46.4% with Dallas this season to 43.8% with Los Angeles. The addition of Doncic has not made a significant impact on their efficiency on offense. Since the All-Star break, they are only scoring +0.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions than their season average. Trading away Anthony Davis has contributed to the Lakers becoming a mostly jump-shooting team. They rank only 17th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home since the All-Star Break. Trading Davis for Doncic has not impacted Los Angeles' play on defense — they are surrendering -0.2. fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break when compared to their season-long Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. At home, the Lakers rank tied for ninth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. Los Angeles also plays at the 11th slowest pace in the NBA — so this should be a lower-scoring game.

FINAL TAKE: Only 213 combined points were scored in the last meeting between these two teams in a 111-102 victory for the Lakers at home at Crypto.com Arena. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Los Angeles Lakers (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.