Jimmy Boyd in 2024-25 College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions
| Team | Quarterfinal | Semifinal | Finals | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Texas | 79.02% | 66.89% | 41.17% | 23.62% |
 Notre Dame | 68.13% | 40.23% | 25.33% | 15.06% |
 Ohio State | 61.25% | 37.01% | 22.93% | 13.44% |
 Georgia | 100.00% | 46.90% | 24.66% | 12.28% |
 Oregon | 100.00% | 43.95% | 21.97% | 10.42% |
 Penn State | 60.15% | 44.50% | 20.75% | 9.21% |
 Tennessee | 38.75% | 19.05% | 10.01% | 5.00% |
 SMU | 39.85% | 25.91% | 10.01% | 3.67% |
 Indiana | 31.87% | 12.88% | 6.07% | 2.71% |
 Boise State | 100.00% | 29.59% | 7.06% | 1.65% |
 Clemson | 20.98% | 12.27% | 4.42% | 1.49% |
 Arizona State | 100.00% | 20.84% | 5.63% | 1.45% |
How Our Projections Work
The table above shows our projected paths for every team in the College Football Playoff. Each number represents more than just a guess. It reflects all the possible outcomes, weighted and combined into a single, clear probability for each round. Every team faces a different path, and while some paths are more favorable, others have formidable matchups that make advancing more difficult.
For each round, we are showing each team’s probability of making it to that round (other than the Championship, which is each team’s probability of winning it all).
Unlike traditional futures odds, which are often influenced by public sentiment, betting action, and brand expectations for certain programs, our approach is focused primarily on the numbers. We start with this season’s power rankings, use them to project potential matchups, and then calculate each team’s chance to win those matchups. From there, we combine all possibilities to create a comprehensive probability for each team to make the Semifinals, the Finals, and ultimately win the Championship.
Of course, no model is perfect. Calculating probabilities for something as complex as the College Football Playoff involves assumptions and estimates. The key difference here is that we are not chasing narratives or reacting to public perception. Instead, we are mapping every possible path and showing how likely it is that each team makes it through. This kind of approach is critical in situations with multiple rounds and weighted possibilities. It gives you a clearer view of the potential difficulty of each team’s route, rather than relying on gut feelings or broad market assumptions.
If you’re looking for a sharp, data-driven view of the playoff field, this table provides exactly that. Check out how each team stacks up and see who has the smoothest ride to the Championship.
Why is Texas Our Favorite to Win the College Football Playoff?
If you’re wondering why Texas sits at the top of the projections, it comes down to two key factors: a strong power ranking from regular season performance, plus relatively favorable potential matchups compared to other teams in the playoff.
For Texas, it all starts with a first-round game against Clemson. Based on our data, Texas is projected as a clear favorite in that matchup. If they win, they would face Arizona State, a team with one of the lowest power rankings in the field. Compared to teams like Georgia or Oregon — who could face much tougher matchups in their first game — Texas has a cleaner path to the Semifinals.
Once in the Semifinals, Texas’s potential opponents are likely to be weaker relative to what other top teams might face. This “path advantage” compounds throughout the bracket, which is why Texas ends up with the highest overall probability to win it all. It’s not just about having a strong team. It’s about having the right matchups at the right time.
This is a perfect example of why our approach is different from traditional betting odds. Futures odds might be shaped by public perception or hype around certain teams. Our approach strips away the noise and focuses on the true probability of advancement. Texas doesn’t just have a strong team — they have a clear and manageable path to the championship.
Put our projections to the test this season when you fill out your College Football Playoff Bracket!