Jimmy Boyd in 
If you are familiar with betting on college football, you may have heard of key numbers on point spreads before. Key numbers are the most common final scoring margins in college football games. For example, a final score of 35-21 would have a margin of 14 points.
We’ve taken a look at every college football game since 1980 for our data and found the most commonly occurring final scoring margins. Below you will find the full list of scoring margins, plus how we can use this information to help when deciding on buying points for bets on the weekly college football spreads. You can also use it when thinking strategy about which teams to use for your CFB teasers each week.
Key Numbers in College Football
| Margin | Games | % of Games |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Points | 1971 | 8.29% |
| 7 Points | 1585 | 6.67% |
| 10 Points | 1007 | 4.24% |
| 14 Points | 977 | 4.11% |
| 4 Points | 977 | 4.11% |
| 17 Points | 911 | 3.83% |
| 21 Points | 867 | 3.65% |
| 1 Points | 859 | 3.61% |
| 24 Points | 716 | 3.01% |
| 2 Points | 715 | 3.01% |
| 6 Points | 689 | 2.90% |
| 5 Points | 651 | 2.74% |
| 28 Points | 641 | 2.70% |
| 11 Points | 577 | 2.43% |
| 18 Points | 575 | 2.42% |
| 31 Points | 525 | 2.21% |
| 8 Points | 518 | 2.18% |
| 20 Points | 510 | 2.15% |
| 13 Points | 444 | 1.87% |
| 35 Points | 436 | 1.83% |
| 12 Points | 434 | 1.83% |
| 25 Points | 431 | 1.81% |
| 27 Points | 396 | 1.67% |
| 16 Points | 359 | 1.51% |
| 19 Points | 353 | 1.49% |
| 9 Points | 352 | 1.48% |
| 38 Points | 337 | 1.42% |
| 34 Points | 336 | 1.41% |
| 23 Points | 330 | 1.39% |
| 22 Points | 319 | 1.34% |
| 32 Points | 316 | 1.33% |
| 15 Points | 316 | 1.33% |
| 42 Points | 265 | 1.11% |
| 26 Points | 255 | 1.07% |
| 30 Points | 237 | 1.00% |
| 45 Points | 198 | 0.83% |
| 29 Points | 193 | 0.81% |
| 41 Points | 179 | 0.75% |
| 39 Points | 176 | 0.74% |
| 37 Points | 158 | 0.66% |
| 33 Points | 155 | 0.65% |
| 49 Points | 151 | 0.64% |
| 48 Points | 124 | 0.52% |
| 36 Points | 119 | 0.50% |
| 46 Points | 104 | 0.44% |
| 44 Points | 96 | 0.40% |
| 40 Points | 93 | 0.39% |
| 52 Points | 92 | 0.39% |
| 56 Points | 81 | 0.34% |
| 43 Points | 68 | 0.29% |
| 53 Points | 56 | 0.24% |
| 55 Points | 55 | 0.23% |
| 47 Points | 55 | 0.23% |
| 59 Points | 53 | 0.22% |
| 51 Points | 52 | 0.22% |
| 50 Points | 48 | 0.20% |
| 63 Points | 39 | 0.16% |
| 58 Points | 34 | 0.14% |
| 62 Points | 29 | 0.12% |
| 54 Points | 28 | 0.12% |
| 66 Points | 24 | 0.10% |
| 57 Points | 17 | 0.07% |
| 64 Points | 14 | 0.06% |
| 60 Points | 14 | 0.06% |
| 65 Points | 12 | 0.05% |
| 69 Points | 10 | 0.04% |
| 70 Points | 8 | 0.03% |
| 61 Points | 8 | 0.03% |
| 68 Points | 7 | 0.03% |
| 72 Points | 6 | 0.03% |
| 76 Points | 5 | 0.02% |
| 73 Points | 5 | 0.02% |
| 67 Points | 5 | 0.02% |
| 74 Points | 4 | 0.02% |
| 77 Points | 3 | 0.01% |
| 84 Points | 1 | 0.00% |
| 81 Points | 1 | 0.00% |
| 71 Points | 1 | 0.00% |
| Total Games: 23,768 | ||
The tables below will help you figure out when you need to buy a half point. If you are going to take your college football handicapping to another level this is one way you can do so.
Buying Onto Key Numbers
| Cost to Buy a Half Point: | 10 Cents | 20 Cents | 25 Cents | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Buy to | Games | % Lands | Loss to Push | Losses | Added Profit | Profit/Loss | Profit/Loss | Profit/Loss |
| -1.5 | -1 | 432 | 3.24% | 14 | $2,020.00 | $1,540.00 | -$480.00 | -$2,500.00 | -$3,510.00 |
| +1.5 | +2 | 435 | 1.84% | 8 | $2,095.00 | $880.00 | -$1,215.00 | -$3,310.00 | -$4,357.50 |
| -2.5 | -2 | 723 | 2.21% | 16 | $3,455.00 | $1,760.00 | -$1,695.00 | -$5,150.00 | -$6,877.50 |
| +2.5 | +3 | 723 | 7.19% | 52 | $3,095.00 | $5,720.00 | $2,625.00 | -$470.00 | -$2,017.50 |
| -3.5 | -3 | 865 | 6.36% | 55 | $3,775.00 | $6,050.00 | $2,275.00 | -$1,500.00 | -$3,387.50 |
| +3.5 | +4 | 865 | 3.93% | 34 | $3,985.00 | $3,740.00 | -$245.00 | -$4,230.00 | -$6,222.50 |
| -4.5 | -4 | 461 | 3.25% | 15 | $2,155.00 | $1,650.00 | -$505.00 | -$2,660.00 | -$3,737.50 |
| +4.5 | +5 | 461 | 2.60% | 12 | $2,185.00 | $1,320.00 | -$865.00 | -$3,050.00 | -$4,142.50 |
| -5.5 | -5 | 488 | 2.25% | 11 | $2,330.00 | $1,210.00 | -$1,120.00 | -$3,450.00 | -$4,615.00 |
| +5.5 | +6 | 488 | 4.51% | 22 | $2,220.00 | $2,420.00 | $200.00 | -$2,020.00 | -$3,130.00 |
| -6.5 | -6 | 743 | 2.29% | 17 | $3,545.00 | $1,870.00 | -$1,675.00 | -$5,220.00 | -$6,992.50 |
| +6.5 | +7 | 743 | 6.46% | 48 | $3,235.00 | $5,280.00 | $2,045.00 | -$1,190.00 | -$2,807.50 |
| -7.5 | -7 | 575 | 5.91% | 34 | $2,535.00 | $3,740.00 | $1,205.00 | -$1,330.00 | -$2,597.50 |
| +7.5 | +8 | 575 | 1.91% | 11 | $2,765.00 | $1,210.00 | -$1,555.00 | -$4,320.00 | -$5,702.50 |
| -8.5 | -8 | 382 | 1.57% | 6 | $1,850.00 | $660.00 | -$1,190.00 | -$3,040.00 | -$3,965.00 |
| +8.5 | +9 | 382 | 2.36% | 9 | $1,820.00 | $990.00 | -$830.00 | -$2,650.00 | -$3,560.00 |
| -9.5 | -9 | 347 | 0.58% | 2 | $1,715.00 | $220.00 | -$1,495.00 | -$3,210.00 | -$4,067.50 |
| +9.5 | +10 | 347 | 4.03% | 14 | $1,595.00 | $1,540.00 | -$55.00 | -$1,650.00 | -$2,447.50 |
| -10.5 | -10 | 373 | 4.56% | 17 | $1,695.00 | $1,870.00 | $175.00 | -$1,520.00 | -$2,367.50 |
| +10.5 | +11 | 373 | 1.61% | 6 | $1,805.00 | $660.00 | -$1,145.00 | -$2,950.00 | -$3,852.50 |
| -11.5 | -11 | 243 | 2.06% | 5 | $1,165.00 | $550.00 | -$615.00 | -$1,780.00 | -$2,362.50 |
| +11.5 | +12 | 243 | 2.06% | 5 | $1,165.00 | $550.00 | -$615.00 | -$1,780.00 | -$2,362.50 |
| -12.5 | -12 | 297 | 1.68% | 5 | $1,435.00 | $550.00 | -$885.00 | -$2,320.00 | -$3,037.50 |
| +12.5 | +13 | 297 | 1.68% | 5 | $1,435.00 | $550.00 | -$885.00 | -$2,320.00 | -$3,037.50 |
| -13.5 | -13 | 399 | 0.50% | 2 | $1,975.00 | $220.00 | -$1,755.00 | -$3,730.00 | -$4,717.50 |
| +13.5 | +14 | 399 | 4.26% | 17 | $1,825.00 | $1,870.00 | $45.00 | -$1,780.00 | -$2,692.50 |
| -14.5 | -14 | 308 | 6.82% | 21 | $1,330.00 | $2,310.00 | $980.00 | -$350.00 | -$1,015.00 |
| +14.5 | +15 | 308 | 1.62% | 5 | $1,490.00 | $550.00 | -$940.00 | -$2,430.00 | -$3,175.00 |
| -15.5 | -15 | 205 | 1.46% | 3 | $995.00 | $330.00 | -$665.00 | -$1,660.00 | -$2,157.50 |
| +15.5 | +16 | 205 | 1.46% | 3 | $995.00 | $330.00 | -$665.00 | -$1,660.00 | -$2,157.50 |
| -16.5 | -16 | 261 | 0.38% | 1 | $1,295.00 | $110.00 | -$1,185.00 | -$2,480.00 | -$3,127.50 |
| +16.5 | +17 | 261 | 4.60% | 12 | $1,185.00 | $1,320.00 | $135.00 | -$1,050.00 | -$1,642.50 |
| -17.5 | -17 | 235 | 4.26% | 10 | $1,075.00 | $1,100.00 | $25.00 | -$1,050.00 | -$1,587.50 |
| +17.5 | +18 | 235 | 1.70% | 4 | $1,135.00 | $440.00 | -$695.00 | -$1,830.00 | -$2,397.50 |
| -18.5 | -18 | 135 | 2.22% | 3 | $645.00 | $330.00 | -$315.00 | -$960.00 | -$1,282.50 |
| +18.5 | +19 | 135 | 0.00% | 0 | $675.00 | $0.00 | -$675.00 | -$1,350.00 | -$1,687.50 |
| -19.5 | -19 | 144 | 2.78% | 4 | $680.00 | $440.00 | -$240.00 | -$920.00 | -$1,260.00 |
| +19.5 | +20 | 144 | 4.17% | 6 | $660.00 | $660.00 | $0.00 | -$660.00 | -$990.00 |
| -20.5 | -20 | 178 | 2.25% | 4 | $850.00 | $440.00 | -$410.00 | -$1,260.00 | -$1,685.00 |
| +20.5 | +21 | 178 | 6.74% | 12 | $770.00 | $1,320.00 | $550.00 | -$220.00 | -$605.00 |
| -21.5 | -21 | 148 | 3.38% | 5 | $690.00 | $550.00 | -$140.00 | -$830.00 | -$1,175.00 |
| +21.5 | +21 | 148 | 2.70% | 4 | $700.00 | $440.00 | -$260.00 | -$960.00 | -$1,310.00 |
| -22.5 | -22 | 106 | 0.94% | 1 | $520.00 | $110.00 | -$410.00 | -$930.00 | -$1,190.00 |
| +22.5 | +22 | 106 | 3.77% | 4 | $490.00 | $440.00 | -$50.00 | -$540.00 | -$785.00 |
| -23.5 | -23 | 138 | 1.45% | 2 | $670.00 | $220.00 | -$450.00 | -$1,120.00 | -$1,455.00 |
| +23.5 | +23 | 138 | 5.07% | 7 | $620.00 | $770.00 | $150.00 | -$470.00 | -$780.00 |
| -24.5 | -24 | 122 | 4.10% | 5 | $560.00 | $550.00 | -$10.00 | -$570.00 | -$850.00 |
| +24.5 | +24 | 122 | 5.74% | 7 | $540.00 | $770.00 | $230.00 | -$310.00 | -$580.00 |
| -25.5 | -25 | 78 | 2.56% | 2 | $370.00 | $220.00 | -$150.00 | -$520.00 | -$705.00 |
| +25.5 | +25 | 78 | 3.85% | 3 | $360.00 | $330.00 | -$30.00 | -$390.00 | -$570.00 |
| -26.5 | -26 | 87 | 1.15% | 1 | $425.00 | $110.00 | -$315.00 | -$740.00 | -$952.50 |
| +26.5 | +27 | 87 | 1.15% | 1 | $425.00 | $110.00 | -$315.00 | -$740.00 | -$952.50 |
| -27.5 | -27 | 117 | 0.85% | 1 | $575.00 | $110.00 | -$465.00 | -$1,040.00 | -$1,327.50 |
| +27.5 | +28 | 117 | 2.56% | 3 | $555.00 | $330.00 | -$225.00 | -$780.00 | -$1,057.50 |
| -28.5 | -28 | 84 | 3.57% | 3 | $390.00 | $330.00 | -$60.00 | -$450.00 | -$645.00 |
This table shows the results of buying a half point to get onto a whole number and how often that purchase would have resulted in turning a profit. Buying the half point would replace a loss with a push every time the margin landed exactly on that number. The profit/loss columns show the results of buying a half point on the point spread listed if you were to bet to win $100 on every game.
Most sportsbooks will allow you to buy points for 10, 20, or 25 cents (for example, buying from -3.5 at -110 would likely cost 20 cents, or -3 -130). History shows us that, unless you can buy a half point for 10 cents or less, buying onto a whole number in college football is typically a losing proposition.
Buying Off of Key Numbers
| Cost to Buy a Half Point: | 10 Cents | 20 Cents | 25 Cents | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy Off | Games | Pushes to Wins | % Lands | Losses | Added Profit | Profit/Loss | Profit/Loss | Profit/Loss |
| 1 | 660 | 22 | 3.33% | $3,08.00 | $2,200.00 | -$880.00 | -$3,960.00 | -$5,500.00 |
| 2 | 559 | 12 | 2.15% | $2,675.00 | $1,200.00 | -$1,475.00 | -$4,150.00 | -$5,487.50 |
| 3 | 997 | 58 | 5.82% | $4,405.00 | $5,800.00 | $1,395.00 | -$3,010.00 | -$5,212.50 |
| 4 | 641 | 23 | 3.59% | $2,975.00 | $2,300.00 | -$675.00 | -$3,650.00 | -$5,137.50 |
| 5 | 477 | 15 | 3.14% | $2,235.00 | $1,500.00 | -$735.00 | -$2,970.00 | -$4,087.50 |
| 6 | 616 | 12 | 1.95% | $2,960.00 | $1,200.00 | -$1,760.00 | -$4,720.00 | -$6,200.00 |
| 7 | 923 | 41 | 4.44% | $4,205.00 | $4,100.00 | -$105.00 | -$4,310.00 | -$6,412.50 |
| 8 | 509 | 15 | 2.95% | $2,395.00 | $1,500.00 | -$895.00 | -$3,290.00 | -$4,487.50 |
| 9 | 418 | 9 | 2.15% | $2,000.00 | $900.00 | -$1,100.00 | -$3,100.00 | -$4,100.00 |
| 10 | 564 | 24 | 4.26% | $2,580.00 | $2,400.00 | -$180.00 | -$2,760.00 | -$4,050.00 |
| 11 | 380 | 7 | 1.84% | $1,830.00 | $700.00 | -$1,130.00 | -$2,960.00 | -$3,875.00 |
| 12 | 331 | 9 | 2.72% | $1,565.00 | $900.00 | -$665.00 | -$2,230.00 | -$3,012.50 |
| 13 | 443 | 11 | 2.48% | $2,105.00 | $1,100.00 | -$1,005.00 | -$3,110.00 | -$4,162.50 |
| 14 | 539 | 8 | 1.48% | $2,615.00 | $800.00 | -$1,815.00 | -$4,430.00 | -$5,737.50 |
| 15 | 308 | 5 | 1.62% | $1,490.00 | $500.00 | -$990.00 | -$2,480.00 | -$3,225.00 |
| 16 | 327 | 2 | 0.61% | $1,615.00 | $200.00 | -$1,415.00 | -$3,030.00 | -$3,837.50 |
| 17 | 419 | 20 | 4.77% | $1,895.00 | $2,000.00 | $105.00 | -$1,790.00 | -$2,737.50 |
| 18 | 235 | 7 | 2.98% | $1,105.00 | $700.00 | -$405.00 | -$1,510.00 | -$2,062.50 |
| 19 | 250 | 5 | 2.00% | $1,200.00 | $500.00 | -$700.00 | -$1,900.00 | -$2,500.00 |
| 20 | 250 | 8 | 3.20% | $1,170.00 | $800.00 | -$370.00 | -$1,540.00 | -$2,125.00 |
| 21 | 299 | 6 | 2.01% | $1,435.00 | $600.00 | -$835.00 | -$2,270.00 | -$2,987.50 |
| 22 | 207 | 6 | 2.90% | $975.00 | $600.00 | -$375.00 | -$1,350.00 | -$1,837.50 |
| 23 | 183 | 3 | 1.64% | $885.00 | $300.00 | -$585.00 | -$1,470.00 | -$1,912.50 |
| 24 | 252 | 8 | 3.17% | $1,180.00 | $800.00 | -$380.00 | -$1,560.00 | -$2,150.00 |
| 25 | 143 | 8 | 5.59% | $635.00 | $800.00 | $165.00 | -$470.00 | -$787.50 |
| 26 | 134 | 3 | 2.24% | $640.00 | $300.00 | -$340.00 | -$980.00 | -$1,300.00 |
| 27 | 150 | 4 | 2.67% | $710.00 | $400.00 | -$310.00 | -$1,020.00 | -$1,375.00 |
| 28 | 158 | 4 | 2.53% | $750.00 | $400.00 | -$350.00 | -$1,100.00 | -$1,475.00 |
The table above explores buying off of a whole number point spread to a half number. For example, buying from +7 to +7.5 to try and get a few added wins instead of pushes. Much like buying onto numbers, buying off rarely makes sense unless you are able to buy the half point for 10 cents or less, otherwise you are simply wasting your money by buying the hook. Again, we’ve used a baseline bet to win $100 on each game.
First Half Key Numbers in College Football
If you do any first half betting then the following table might be interesting to you. You can see that a large number of games land on a variation of a touchdown and a field goal. Plus, with the shorter time played in the first half compared to the game the margins bunch up with smaller numbers.
| Margin | Games | % of Games |
| 7 Points | 901 | 12.07% |
| 3 Points | 639 | 8.56% |
| 14 Points | 602 | 8.07% |
| 10 Points | 569 | 7.62% |
| 4 Points | 531 | 7.11% |
| 0 Points | 521 | 6.98% |
| 11 Points | 391 | 5.24% |
| 21 Points | 353 | 4.73% |
| 17 Points | 352 | 4.72% |
| 6 Points | 248 | 3.32% |
| 1 Points | 232 | 3.11% |
| 28 Points | 218 | 2.92% |
| 13 Points | 215 | 2.88% |
| 24 Points | 201 | 2.69% |
| 18 Points | 197 | 2.64% |
| 8 Points | 176 | 2.36% |
| 20 Points | 138 | 1.85% |
| 2 Points | 111 | 1.49% |
| 35 Points | 107 | 1.43% |
| 9 Points | 99 | 1.33% |
| 25 Points | 99 | 1.33% |
| 15 Points | 85 | 1.14% |
| 31 Points | 85 | 1.14% |
| 5 Points | 83 | 1.11% |
| 27 Points | 71 | 0.95% |
| 16 Points | 70 | 0.94% |
| 12 Points | 62 | 0.83% |
| 23 Points | 59 | 0.79% |
| 38 Points | 49 | 0.66% |
| 42 Points | 48 | 0.64% |
| 22 Points | 45 | 0.60% |
| 34 Points | 36 | 0.48% |
| 32 Points | 35 | 0.47% |
| 19 Points | 34 | 0.46% |
| 30 Points | 27 | 0.36% |
| 29 Points | 26 | 0.35% |
| 26 Points | 25 | 0.33% |
| 45 Points | 19 | 0.25% |
| 49 Points | 18 | 0.24% |
| 39 Points | 14 | 0.19% |
| 41 Points | 11 | 0.15% |
| 40 Points | 10 | 0.13% |
| 37 Points | 9 | 0.12% |
| 46 Points | 9 | 0.12% |
| 36 Points | 6 | 0.08% |
| 48 Points | 6 | 0.08% |
| 33 Points | 5 | 0.07% |
| 44 Points | 5 | 0.07% |
| 47 Points | 4 | 0.05% |
| 43 Points | 3 | 0.04% |
| 52 Points | 3 | 0.04% |
| 56 Points | 2 | 0.03% |
| 59 Points | 2 | 0.03% |
| 50 Points | 1 | 0.01% |
| 51 Points | 1 | 0.01% |
| 55 Points | 1 | 0.01% |
| 62 Points | 1 | 0.01% |
Second Half College Football Key Numbers
The key numbers for college football second halves are very similar to the first half. If you are going to do any halftime betting then this will show you the importance of shopping lines and getting value with your key numbers.
| Margin | Games | % of Games |
| 7 Points | 968 | 12.50% |
| 14 Points | 726 | 9.38% |
| 3 Points | 637 | 8.23% |
| 10 Points | 566 | 7.31% |
| 4 Points | 536 | 6.92% |
| 0 Points | 531 | 6.86% |
| 21 Points | 399 | 5.15% |
| 17 Points | 357 | 4.61% |
| 6 Points | 342 | 4.42% |
| 11 Points | 315 | 4.07% |
| 1 Points | 312 | 4.03% |
| 13 Points | 270 | 3.49% |
| 8 Points | 232 | 3.00% |
| 2 Points | 196 | 2.53% |
| 18 Points | 153 | 1.98% |
| 5 Points | 145 | 1.87% |
| 28 Points | 145 | 1.87% |
| 9 Points | 138 | 1.78% |
| 24 Points | 132 | 1.71% |
| 15 Points | 112 | 1.45% |
| 20 Points | 111 | 1.43% |
| 12 Points | 88 | 1.14% |
| 16 Points | 84 | 1.09% |
| 25 Points | 54 | 0.70% |
| 27 Points | 47 | 0.61% |
| 19 Points | 40 | 0.52% |
| 22 Points | 38 | 0.49% |
| 31 Points | 38 | 0.49% |
| 23 Points | 29 | 0.37% |
| 35 Points | 28 | 0.36% |
| 34 Points | 21 | 0.27% |
| 32 Points | 11 | 0.14% |
| 26 Points | 10 | 0.13% |
| 30 Points | 10 | 0.13% |
| 29 Points | 9 | 0.12% |
| 42 Points | 7 | 0.09% |
| 38 Points | 6 | 0.08% |
| 41 Points | 5 | 0.06% |
| 45 Points | 5 | 0.06% |
| 33 Points | 4 | 0.05% |
| 36 Points | 2 | 0.03% |
| 37 Points | 2 | 0.03% |
| 39 Points | 2 | 0.03% |
| 40 Points | 2 | 0.03% |
| 48 Points | 2 | 0.03% |
| 43 Points | 1 | 0.01% |
| 50 Points | 1 | 0.01% |
| 56 Points | 1 | 0.01% |