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A big topic of debate is which college football conference reigns supreme over the other. There’s all kind of power ratings out there that look at just the conferences instead of the individual teams.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. The problem is there’s usually some biased involved with the rankings. Most are going to rank whatever league or school they follow the closest higher than it should be. No surprise given how passionate NCAA football fans are about the game, but there might be an edge to be found in our CFB betting if we know the answer.
Conference vs Conference: Straight Up (SU) & Against the Spread (ATS)
Instead of arguing over who is the best, let’s take a look at what the numbers have to say. Being able to determine which conference is stronger, is a key part of handicapping NCAAF. Especially when it comes to non-conference games.
I’ve went back over the data, dating all the way back to the 1980’s. Using that information I have compiled the straight up and against the spread records for each conference. I’ve included their overall numbers, as well as how they do against each individual league.
When it comes to just winning the game, the SEC has been the top dog with a 71.5% win rate. The next best is the Big 12 at 62.4%, followed closely by the Big Ten at 60.6%. The worst of the bunch is the ACC at 53.9%.
What really matters is who brings home the money at the betting window. Unfortunately not a lot to get excited about. All five of the Power 5 leagues come in right around the 50% mark. Looks like you are to have to focus more on how they peform against each league individually.
SEC
SU
ATS
AAC
12-6 (66.7%)
10-8 55.6%)
ACC
165-112-3 (59.6%)
139-139-2 (50.0%)
B10
73-42-1 (63.5%)
64-49-3 (56.6%)
B12
57-45-2 (55.9%)
57-47 (54.8%)
IND
309-138-8 (69.1%)
201-224-7 (47.3%)
MAC
82-8 (91.1%)
36-43-2 (45.6%)
MWC
17-7 (70.8%)
11-13 (45.8%)
P12
40-19 (67.8%)
31-31 (50.0%)
SBC
140-8 (94.6%)
71-70-2 (50.4%)
USA
138-26 (84.1%)
83-78-2 (51.6%)
OVERALL
1033-411-17 (71.5%)
703-702 (50.0%)
Big Ten
SU
ATS
AAC
14-3 (82.4%)
8-9-0 (47.1%)
ACC
52-47 (52.5%)
48-51 (48.5%)
B12
88-74-2 (54.3%)
86-76-2 (53.1%)
IND
109-106-4 (50.7%)
112-99-5 (53.1%)
MAC
249-39- (86.5%)
130-134-5 (49.2%)
MWC
34-7 (82.9%)
21-18-1 (53.8%)
P12
96-124 (43.6%)
94-123-5 (43.3%)
SBC
27-2 (93.1%)
14-14-1 (50.0%)
SEC
42-73-1 (36.5%)
49-64-3 (43.4%)
USA
41-14 (74.5%)
31-24-0 (56.4%)
OVERALL
752-489-7 (60.6%)
593-612-22 (49.2%)
ACC
SU
ATS
AAC
20-14-0 (58.8%)
18-16 (52.9%)
B10
47-52 (47.5%)
51-48 (51.5%)
B12
37-30 (55.2%)
34-33 (50.7%)
IND
178-160-9 (52.7%)
168-166-3 (50.3%)
MAC
62-12 (83.8%)
36-33-1 (52.2%)
MWC
13-12 (52.0%)
11-14 (44.0%)
P12
16-31 (34.0%)
25-20-2 (55.6%)
SBC
39-5 (88.6%)
20-24 (45.5%)
SEC
112-165-3 (40.4%)
139-139-2 (50.0%)
USA
64-22 (74.4%)
42-42-2 (50.0%)
OVERALL
588-503-12 (53.9%)
544-535-10 (50.4%)
Pac-12
SU
ATS
AAC
2-0-0 (15.50, 100.0%)
1-1-0 (-5.25, 50.0%)
ACC
31-16 (66.0%)
20-25-2 (44.4%)
B10
124-96 (56.4%)
123-94-5 (56.7%)
B12
81-89-1 (47.6%)
85-84-1 (50.3%)
IND
75-73-2 (50.7%)
63-81-4 (43.8%)(
MAC
15-0 (100.0%)
5-4 (55.6%)
MWC
82-44 (65.1%)
63-62-1 (50.4%)
SBC
26-0 (100%)
14-12 (53.8%)
SEC
19-40-3 (32.2%)
31-31 (50.0%)
USA
21-3 (87.5%)
13-10-1 (56.5%)
OVERALL
476-361-6 (56.8%)
418-404-14 (50.9%)
Big 12
SU
ATS
AAC
8-1 (88.9%)
1-0 (100.0%)
ACC
10-3 (76.9%)
6-7 (46.2%)
B10
30-37 (44.8%)
33-34 (49.3%)
IND
5-2 (71.4%)
0-1 (0.0%)
MAC
92-58 (61.3%)
66-76 (46.5%)
MVC
61-17 (78.2%)
45-29 (60.8%)
MWC
9-7 (56.2%)
3-11 (21.4%)
P12
81-75-1 (51.9%)
71-83-2 (46.1%)
SBC
12-10 (54.5%)
14-8 (63.6%)
SEC
70-5 (93.3%)
41-31 (56.9%)
USA
46-40-4 (53.5%)
46-43-1 (51.7%)
OVERALL
424-255-5 (62.4%)
326-323-3 (50.2%)
Group of 5 Conferences
As you would expect, the winning percentages of the Group of 5 programs is not great. C-USA has the best record of the bunch, hitting 47.% straight up. Not too far back from them is the Mountain West at 43.4%. No surprise that the worst of the group is the Sun Belt, which has won a mere 19.7% of their games outside of league play.
Once again there’s not a lot to get excited about when it comes to the betting lines. At least in terms of one conference being a strong or weak bet. Looks like you will again have to just see how each league performs against the rest.