Our Methodology: Probability-Weighted Projections To create accurate player projections, we analyzed the odds for each team to advance to each round of the playoffs. We could adjust player projections by assigning probabilities to each team’s path. Players on teams likely to make a deep playoff run have higher overall projections, while those on teams with… Read More »
Jump to Best Available Odds Teaser of the Week Past Results Each week of the season I’ll be providing readers with what is known as my best free NFL Teaser Picks of the Week (below). These have been very profitable for me as I’ve made money on these bets in six of the last ten… Read More »
Jump to Strategy Recap Best Available Top Value Play Team to Avoid NFL survivor pools are becoming more and more popular every season and we have a list of popular contests you can enter. While “Survivor” is the most commonly used name for this contest, several will refer to it as a Knockout, Elimination, or… Read More »
This page is all about providing you with a detailed look at the Super Bowl betting odds for this year’s NFL championship. As soon as the previous season is in the books, we turn our attention to the future lines for all 32 teams for the next year. We do our best to keep you… Read More »
Team Odds Implied Probability Aaron Rodgers +100 50.0% Russell Wilson +1200 7.69% Deshaun Watson +1500 6.25% Sam Darnold +3000 3.23% Justin Fields +4000 2.44% Gardner Minshew +5000 1.96% Trent Jordan Watt +5000 1.96% J K Dobbins +6000 1.64% Joey Bosa +7000 1.41% Jameis Winston +8000 1.23% Carson Wentz +10000 0.99% Jimmy Garoppolo +10000 0.99% Mike… Read More »
The NFL season is fast approaching and with it comes all kinds of NFL futures for bettors to take advantage of. It’s not just the Super Bowl odds or NFL season win totals that gets the gambling world excited. As soon as the draft is completed the sportsbooks go to work on putting up player… Read More »
Team Odds Implied Probability Micah Parsons +550 15.38% Trent Jordan Watt +550 15.38% Nick Bosa +700 12.5% Maxx Crosby +700 12.5% Myles Garrett +800 11.11% Aidan Hutchinson +1000 9.09% Will Anderson +2000 4.76% Josh Allen +2500 3.85% Danielle Hunter +2500 3.85% Chris Jones +3000 3.23% Montez Sweat +3000 3.23% Kyle Hamilton +4000 2.44% Fred Warner… Read More »
Team Odds Implied Probability Matt Eberflus +900 10.0% Robert Saleh +1100 8.33% Jim Harbaugh +1100 8.33% Matt Lafleur +1200 7.69% Demeco Ryans +1300 7.14% Raheem Morris +1300 7.14% Jonathan Gannon +1500 6.25% Dan Campbell +1500 6.25% Shane Steichen +1600 5.88% Dave Canales +1800 5.26% Dan Quinn +1800 5.26% Antonio Pierce +2000 4.76% Mike Tomlin +2000… Read More »
There isn’t much that can get an NFL fan base excited than to get a star offensive skill player in the draft. That is why the books are pretty quick to post odds right after the draft on which players will take home the OROY award by the end of the season. I’m not sure… Read More »
The NFL is a quarterback driven league and there isn’t much more evidence of that than a look at the NFL MVP odds. They are normally dominated by franchise QBs on winning teams. It’s why the signal caller position is so highly paid, why teams are willing to use so much draft capital on the… Read More »
Super Bowl 58 is in the books. The Chiefs outlasted the 49ers in overtime to repeat as NFL Champions! Each year we put together our own Super Bowl prop betting sheet for you to use. Here’s a look at the results you can use to grade any pools you might have ran. Coin Toss Heads… Read More »
Most NFL coach salaries aren’t officially disclosed. However, there are sources that report approximate contracts when at all possible. Normally this is the hometown newspapers, but I’ve also found data on Twitter, Forbes, Pro Football Talk, and Spotrac. Using the information that is available, we came up with the approximate salaries below. What is one… Read More »
Be sure to follow Jimmy Boyd on Twitter for all of his Super Bowl props! Chances are you’ve heard about people betting on Super Bowl props. These prop wagers are becoming more and more popular each year. Sportsbooks know people love to bet on the big game any way they can. They certainly don’t disappoint,… Read More »
The Super Bowl is one of the most highly anticipated sporting events of the year, and tickets to the big game are some of the most sought-after items in the sports world. But as the game has grown in popularity over the years, so have the prices of Super Bowl tickets. From the inaugural Super… Read More »
The ultimate goal for almost every player in the NFL is to win a Super Bowl. It’s no different for the head coaches. It’s an equally challenging feat. Especially with how short of a leash these guys are on nowadays. This table takes a look at the head coaches who have guided their team to the… Read More »
The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. No player’s performance has a bigger impact on a team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl or not. For the most part, elite signal callers tend to run the show. However, we have seen multiple game managers find their way into the big game. The big difference between those… Read More »
Most people don’t have the luxury of making the trip to the big game. Those that can’t go will attend a party or hit up the local bars to watch the last NFL game of the season. Not a bad alternative, especially if you are involved in a pool of some kind. We’ve included our favorites… Read More »
The Super Bowl is one of the biggest events in sports, and the point spread is an integral part of the betting process. Let’s take a look at the history of the point spread in the Super Bowl. Biggest Point Spread: The biggest point spread ever in the Super Bowl was 18.5 points in Super… Read More »
The success of an NFL franchise is measured by a lot of things. None more so than the number of Super Bowl wins they have complied and how many rings are on their fingers. This article takes a closer look at what teams have owned the record books. Hopefully, it will help you decide which… Read More »
The goal for every NFL team entering the season is to make it into the playoffs and play their way into a Super Bowl championship. Most will fail. Below are the the current odds to make the playoffs for each NFL team. You can use these odds to help make your predictions on which teams… Read More »
Listed below are the NFL offensive player of the year odds. What’s funny to me is that the MVP award has been dominated by quarterbacks but the offensive player of the year hasn’t been. Not sure why that is when the quarterback plays on the offense. In fact, just over half of the players that… Read More »
There are a lot of terms and jargon that you have to pick up when you are learning sports betting. One term that has gained traction in recent years is the octopus. I have to admit this one even had me scratching my head the first time I heard it. But what exactly does it… Read More »
For those of you who aren’t familiar with betting the money line in the NFL, it’s simple. You are essentially wagering on who you think will win the game. There’s no point spread involved. There is just an increase in the juice based on the percentage of chances of a team winning outright. For example, the money line… Read More »
When Week 1 of the NFL season arrives bettors are looking for any edge that they can find. One possible angle is to look at if there is a Super Bowl Hangover. How do the winners and losers of last season’s championship games fare in their first game of the year? So much attention is… Read More »
One of the most popular types of wagers when it comes to NFL futures are win totals. The 2023 season is fast approaching and the sports book have started to release their over/unders for each team. You can use this information in a variety of ways, even if you don’t want to make an actual… Read More »
SUMMARY We can identify key numbers in the NFL by looking at historical score margins. Using the frequency of each margin, we can give an expected ROI for buying a half point at different price points. Key numbers for the first and second half are similar to full game key numbers, with some crucial differences.… Read More »
NFL Survivor Pools, often known as “Knockout”, “Eliminator”, or “Last Man Standing” pools, have become one of the most popular contests for groups of people to enjoy the pro football season. The concept is so simple that anyone can get behind it, all you have to do is survive by picking teams that win their… Read More »
NFL survivor pools, also known as knockout, eliminator, or last-man standing pools, have become a popular way for fans to have skin in the game during the pro football season. In these pools, participants are required to pick one NFL team each week. If the chosen team wins (or sometimes ties), the participant moves on… Read More »
NFL survivor contests are one of the best ways for the general public to enjoy the football season. They provide week-to-week entertainment and give everyone a chance to win significant prizes. And best of all we have our survivor pool picks each week to help you get an edge over the field! If you want… Read More »
If you’re aiming for a winning streak in your bets this football season, it’s crucial to leverage every possible advantage. One such factor that can significantly sway the outcome of a game is the weather. This article serves as your comprehensive guide on how to incorporate weather conditions into your NFL handicapping strategy. Decoding the… Read More »
The Super Bowl brings in a lot of betting action across the globe. The Nevada Gaming Commission reports the total amount of wagers taken on the Super Bowl at the state’s sportsbooks each year. Here’s a hint, it is nearly as much as the amount wagered for the entire NCAA tournament. This is the most accurate way… Read More »
What is the home field edge really worth in the NFL? You’ve probably heard many different answers from many different sources. Looking for just one number to tell you how much the spreads adjust? The public perception is that it’s roughly a field goal and that’s pretty close. A more exact number would be closer to 2.7-point… Read More »
There are all different kinds of ways to bet on the Super Bowl. Sure, the most popular way is to make a wager on the side or total. In the weeks leading up to it, the Vegas Super Bowl odds are a popular bet. A lot of money will also come in on prop wagers.… Read More »
For those that don’t know, there was believed to be a curse on the team that is hosting the Super Bowl in that if your team is hosting the big game, you might as well start looking ahead to next year. This season marks the first time in history that a team’s stadium planned to… Read More »
Jump to Basics Payouts Best Numbers 6-Points 6.5-Points 7-Points 10-Points Totals I have been making profits betting NFL teasers for years and my teaser of the week has become one of the most visited pages on the site due to its consistent success. Simply put, they are beatable and you should add this bet type to your gambling arsenal… Read More »
The Super Bowl has become a larger than life event. When the Kansas City Chiefs face off against the San Francisco 49erss in Super Bowl LIV all eyes will be on the big game. Most will be tuned in to see who wins on the field. As you know, that’s not all that’s worth watching.… Read More »
The Super Bowl MVP Award is given to the most valuable player in the championship game. It’s an honor unlike any other and can turn a regular player into a super star. At the bottom of this article is a full table that list every MVP winner in Super Bowl History. I also take a… Read More »
Super Bowl Sunday isn’t just about watching the biggest game of the year. It’s about having fun with family and friends. It’s never too early to start preparing, especially if you are planning on hosting. For you hosts out there, I’ve cooked up a few party games to take note of. After all, you need… Read More »
Heading out to Sin City for the big game? You might be asking is where to watch the Super Bowl in Las Vegas? This will be one of the busier weekends in the city, so make sure you get a plan established early. The first thing that most visitors think of are the sportsbooks on… Read More »
As we look forward to this year’s Super Bowl, I wanted to look back at some of the biggest upsets in NFL history. The list was complied mostly from games where teams won outright as huge underdogs. However, that’s not all we looked at. We also took into account teams not expected to win that… Read More »
The Super Bowl ring is the most recognizable ring in the world of sports championship jewelry. From the time every football player steps into the NFL, winning the Super Bowl is the ultimate goal. Once they get that ring, it solidifies their dreams. Few people ever have the opportunity to earn one of these collectibles.… Read More »
It’s time to talk about some Super Bowl fun facts. Only thing is these types of rumors aren’t verified and need to be taken with a little tongue in cheek. List of Fun Facts & Information Regarding the Super Bowl Flushing You and everybody else is glued to the television set watching the big game and… Read More »
Regular season handicapping and Super Bowl handicapping are not the same thing. The Super Bowl is the main event on the betting calendar. With that comes its own exclusive set of betting guidelines. Let’s take a look at what makes the Super Bowl so different. Super Bowl Handicapping Tips & Expert Betting Angles Fatigue Both… Read More »
Since the 2002 expansion and reorganization, the playoffs have consisted of the four division winners and two Wild Card teams from each conference. In order to make the six-team bracket work, the NFL awarded the top two division winners from each conference a first round bye, leaving the other two division champs to host the… Read More »
It’s no secret. The team that wins the turnover battle greatly improves their chancing of winning. Despite this knowledge, it’s a stat that is often overlooked when handicapping the NFL. If you can accurately predict who will win the turnover margin, you are going to have a very profitable season betting on the NFL. As… Read More »
It’s never too early to start preparing for the beginning of a new NFL season. Once the free agent signings are in the books and the draft is complete, we have a really good idea of what each team is going to look like. Oddsmakers are well aware of the public’s obsession with pro football.… Read More »
Now a days there is so much information, it’s hard to know where to start looking when handicapping the NFL. You could spend countless hours trying to breakdown the pro football spreads. The problem with spending all that time, is there’s no guarantee you are going to make a profit with your bets. Others simply… Read More »
We are a little less than a month away from the 2019 NFL Draft. First round action is scheduled for Thursday, April 25 at 8:00 EST. Rounds 2-3 will follow on Friday with rounds 4-7 on Saturday. Trying to project how it will unfold is no easy task and near impossible to get right. A… Read More »
There’s been plenty of amazing moments in Super Bowl history. Instead of dwelling on those, I want to focus in on the not so good performances. I’ve compiled what I believe to be some of the worst Super Bowl chokes. The list is compiled of both teams and players who failed on the biggest stage… Read More »
There’s always a ton of excitement leading up to what is known as Championship Sunday in the NFL. Only four teams are left standing and the goal of reaching the Super Bowl is just one win away. It doesn’t matter if your team is in the mix or not. This is one afternoon of football… Read More »
One of the interesting things that comes up in the NFL playoffs, is two teams from the same division playing each other for a third time. I decided now was a great time to take a look at how these third division matchups have fared over the years. I’ve broken down several different circumstances that… Read More »
I wanted to find out if there were any recurring trends that stuck out for Thanksgiving Day games, and it just so happens that I came across a significant one. Teams who are favored on Thanksgiving have been winning and covering at a solid rate. The table below shows the record against the spread (ATS) for… Read More »
There’s a misconception out there that betting on preseason NFL football is not a good idea. The belief is that only degenerates wager on exhibition games. While degenerates do in fact bet on preseason games, they aren’t the only ones. Expert handicappers like myself are more than willing to get in on the action. Simply… Read More »
Betting on the NFL is extremely popular, but not everyone is aware of how to wager it or how many different types of bets are available to make. For the uninitiated, all of this information can be a bit overwhelming and even a little confusing. This article serves as a great tool to reference whenever… Read More »
Everyone loves an exciting game. Just imagine the excitement if most teams went for two on every touchdown instead of kicking an almost-automatic-extra-point. Which is why I love that the NFL has moved the distance back for extra points this season. Hopefully, it will encourage more teams to go for the 2-point conversion. However, we will have… Read More »
Chances are you have seen or heard of the term “Sharp Money” with regard to NFL handicapping. If not, I strongly encourage you to read this article carefully. I’m going to define it, explain it, and show you how to follow it. All of this is going to help you increase your profits on the… Read More »
NFL power rankings are a major component to NFL handicapping. The key is being able to find a ratings system you can trust. There’s a lot of people out there with opinions, who don’t really know what they are talking about. Most people who bet on football, could come up with their own ratings. The… Read More »
One of the first rules of thumb that you learn when handicapping the NFL, is to shop for the best odds. Having multiple online sportsbooks at your disposal will increase your chances of profiting. When it comes to wagering on the spread in football, most are familiar with the key numbers to look for. For… Read More »
Does it matter the exact line that a game closes at? Are there certain pro football spreads that win more than the rest? See for yourself, as I have compiled an in-depth look at how every spread in the last 25+ years has performed. If all things were equal, we would expect it to be… Read More »
If you are someone who is struggling to pick winners on a consistent basis and keep finding yourself with an empty bankroll, it’s likely due to a lack of quality information. That’s why I created the ultimate NFL handicapping guide to help you cash more winning tickets. I’m confident that if you start using the… Read More »
The sports betting industry has evolved over the years. Just about every sportsbook is offering live, in-game betting odds. This includes halftime lines, and more exotic bets like parlays and teasers. A wise gambler once told me, any exotic bet offered by a sportsbook is a suckers bet. If you think about it, the sportsbooks… Read More »
This article takes a closer look at how oddsmakers adjust the NFL totals over the course of the regular-season. The goal was to find any significant patterns that we can use to help predict future totals. Keep in mind that we are not advocating simply wagering blindly on an over or under based only on… Read More »
One of the keys to successful NFL handicapping is understanding player value. Injuries are way of life in pro football. They happen all the time and no team is going to avoid them. This article is all about understanding how specific players can impact the odds. More specifically the exact numerical value they are worth… Read More »
There are few things as exciting as the start of the NFL season. Handicapping the NFL is not easy. You have to know which teams the odds makers overvalue and which ones they undervalue. Most teams with low expectations from the odds makers perform well against the spread. However, when it comes to the best single-season against the spread records, those… Read More »
List of the Top 7 All-Time Late Round NFL Draft Sleepers The NFL draft is often times what separates the great teams from the bottom feeders. Missing on players in the opening rounds can be devastating to a team’s future success. At the same time, striking gold on a player in the later rounds can turn… Read More »
I’ve been doing a little bit of research into NFL handicapping and I thought of comparing the scoring of first and second halves. The reason is to further understand the sport and also to see if there are any weaknesses in these lesser bet lines that I can exploit. I went back over the last… Read More »